Cuban Weapons and North Korea

Focus on

Cuba


Issue 342
July 26, 2017 


 

by Jaime Suchlicki*

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Four years ago this month, Panamanian authorities captured a North Korean vessel en route from Cuba carrying hidden weapons for the North Korean regime. This event happened at the same time as the U.S. and Cuban governments negotiated a normalization of relations.
 
The North Korean vessel carried 240 tons of weapons from Cuba, including rockets, missile systems and two MIG 21s hidden among sacks of Cuban sugar. It raised numerous questions and provided few answers.
  • If the weapons were being sent from Cuba to be repaired in North Korea as the Cuban government insisted, why were they hidden in the hold of the ship under thousands of Cuban sugar bags?
  • Why did the North Korean crew resist the Panamanian boarding of their ship in Panamanian waters? And why did the ship’s captain try to commit suicide?


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Four years ago this month, Panamanian authorities captured a North Korean vessel en route from Cuba carrying hidden weapons for the North Korean regime. This event happened at the same time as the U.S. and Cuban governments negotiated a normalization of relations.

  • If Cuba needed to repair these weapons, why didn’t Gen. Raul Castro send them to Russia? After all, these were Russian weapons. 
  • Better yet, wouldn’t it have been less expensive and more efficient to bring North Korean or Russian technicians to Cuba to repair these weapons?
  • Why would Cuba make this major effort to repair “obsolete” weapons, as the Cuban government described the missile systems and the two MIG 21s?
  • Wouldn’t it have been easier or cheaper for Cuba to ask Venezuela to send to the island military equipment from their Russian purchases and include it in the Venezuelan package of aid to Cuba? 
  • Or, couldn’t the Cubans have used the credits provided by Russia to purchase modern military equipment?

This leads to the conclusion that Cuba and North Korea were not forthcoming with answers that could clarify this event. An obvious answer are that those were not “obsolete” weapons but functional, although old, equipment being shipped to another country.

For the past 50 years, Cuba has been an ally and supporter of numerous anti-American regimes and revolutionary and terrorist groups, some still struggling to attain and consolidate power and impose Marxist ideologies on their population. One of these is the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The Congolese army has failed to quell a growing insurgency which has dragged the country’s eastern region back to war. The rebellion increased the possibility of conflict with neighboring Uganda and Rwanda, which allegedly were supporting the rebels. The Marxist Congolese government led by Joseph Kabila, a close friend of Cuba, had been struggling to retain power and crush the rebellion.

Congo is a major source of Uranium, which North Korea needs for its nuclear program. Shipments of North Korean weapons bound for the Congo have been intercepted in the past. Were the Cubans and North Koreans gambling to support their comrades in the Congo? The Director of the Sub-Saharan Department of Cuba’s Foreign Ministry and former Ambassador to the Congo, Hector Igarza, led a high level, little publicized, delegation to Congo in 2013, offering Cuban support for the beleaguered Congo regime. In September 2011, Kabila visited Gen. Raul Castro in Havana.

To date, the mystery of the Cuban weapons in a North Korean vessel has not been solved. The implications are clear:
  • It represented a serious violation of U.N. Resolutions.
  • It showed Gen. Raul Castro’s continuous commitment to internationalism and his willingness to violate international laws to support an ally.
  • It showed that the Cubans are more interested in playing an international role and support their old allies, than work with the U.S. toward a possible normalization of relations.
It showed, one more time, that in Cuba economic decisions are dictated by political considerations. Relations with the U.S. were not a priority for Gen. Raul Castro. Supporting anti-American regimes and playing an international role remain Cuba’s priorities. 



*Jaime Suchlicki is Emilio Bacardi Moreau Distinguished Professor and Director, Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies, University of Miami. He is the author of Cuba: From Columbus to Castro, now in its fifth edition; Mexico: From Montezuma to NAFTA, now in its second edition and the recently published Breve Historia de Cuba.

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Books available at ICCAS 

Cuba: From Columbus to Castro and Beyond, by Jaime Suchlicki, provides a detailed and sophisticated understanding of the Cuba of yesterday, today, and tomorrow.

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Mañana in Cuba, by Jose Azel, is a comprehensive analysis of contemporary Cuba with an incisive perspective of the Cuban frame of mind and its relevancy for Cuba's future.

Death of a Dream: History of Cuba Elusive Quest for Freedom, the twenty one chapters are explicitly historical, strongly analytical, concisely written and closely argued; the result is a brilliant narrative that spanned over five centuries of Cuba's history.

For a list of more books available and to purchase them call ICCAS (305) 284-2822.
 


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Does Economic Development Lead To Democracy?

the AZEL

PERSPECTIVE

Commentary on Cuba's Future, U.S. Foreign Policy & Individual Freedoms - Issue 84
 


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For decades the proposition that: “The more well-to-do a nation, the greater the chances that it will sustain democracy” has been conventional wisdom, and a centerpiece of U.S. foreign policy. The quote is from the seminal 1959 work of political sociologist Seymour Martin Lipset, “Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Development.”
Lipset was the first to offer, on empirical grounds, a correlation between development and democracy. His thesis continues to guide our foreign policy and is often cited by policymakers when discussing how to promote transitions to democracy.

In what has become known as the Lipset hypothesis, the professor theorized that economic development helps to consolidate democracy by expanding levels of literacy, information and media access, expanding the middle class, enabling independent civic organizations, fostering legitimacy and other sociopolitical values. Unfortunately, Lipset is one of those authors that is cited or miscited more frequently than he is read.
 
In fact, Lipset argued that the political correlate of democracy is a broad list of factors that change social conditions allowing the fostering of a democratic culture. These factors, among them industrialization, urbanization, wealth, and education, constitute the conditions, not the causes for democracy. As the title of his article suggests, the relationship between economic development and political democracy is correlational, not causal.

U.S. foreign policy goes array when policymakers ignore the contingent nature of history, and relegate the complex structural and societal conditions conducive to democracy into a simplistic economic variable. The error is compounded when correlation is mistaken for causality. As shown by Lipset, economic prosperity is often found together with personal freedoms, but that does not mean that economic growth causes the advent of political reforms.

The fact that two events are frequently observed together does not mean that one causes the other as in: The rooster crows every morning, therefore the rooster causes the sun to come up.  In logic, the principle that correlation does not imply causation is known as the cum hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy; Latin for “with this, therefore because of this.”
 
The important public policy implications of the Lipset hypothesis have made it one of the most researched topics in the social sciences. Recent scholarship does not support the claim that economic development brings about democracy. The most that can be drawn from the empirical evidence is that development facilitates the endurance of democracy but it does not make democracy more likely. In our current understanding, the emergence of democracy is not brought about by economic development. And yet, U.S. foreign policy continues to rely on the false causality of the ‘development first, democracy later’ approach.

The outlier evidence flows in both directions with affluent autocracies such as Saudi Arabia and poor democracies such as Costa Rica. In the case of totalitarian regimes, it is clear that economic development does not lead to political reforms as demonstrated by China and Vietnam. In totalitarian societies, elites have too much to lose and the choice is for oppression.

Even in the case of authoritarian regimes the evidence is mixed. The divergent cases of South Korea and Singapore illustrate the limitations of the claim that development fosters democracy. The economies of both countries have prospered to the top layers in the world economy. South Korea seems to exemplify circumstances where increased wealth worked to the later consolidation of democracy. Singapore, on the other hand, turns the thesis on its head as the country remains authoritarian and has turned more repressive with the increase in prosperity.

Our understanding of the relationship between regime type and economic development remains, at best, probabilistic. But we have learned that in former communist societies, it was not economics that led the movement for democracy. In those countries, the essential struggle between people and the elites was about political rights and civil liberties.

Thus, for the promotion of democracy, our foreign policy should  come of age and be informed by a better understanding of how citizens adopt democratic values and push for democratic reforms.

Please let us know if you Like Issue 84 - Does Economic Development Lead To Democracy? on Facebook this article.
We welcome your feedback.
Abrazos,
 
Lily & José
 
(click on the name to email Lily or Jose)
This article was originally published in English in the Miami Herald and in Spanish in El Nuevo Herald.
 
José Azel, Ph.D.
José Azel left Cuba in 1961 as a 13 year-old political exile in what has been dubbed Operation Pedro Pan - the largest unaccompanied child refugee movement in the history of the Western Hemisphere.  

He is currently dedicated to the in-depth analyses of Cuba's economic, social and political state, with a keen interest in post-Castro-Cuba strategies as a Senior Scholar at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies (ICCAS) at the University of Miami and has published extensively on Cuba related topics.

In 2012 and 2015, Dr. Azel testified in the U.S. Congress on U.S.-Cuba Policy, and U.S. National Security.  He is a frequent speaker and commentator on these and related topics on local, national and international media.  He holds undergraduate and masters degrees in business administration and a Ph.D. in International Affairs from the University of Miami.

José along with his wife Lily are avid skiers and adventure travelers.  In recent years they have climbed Grand Teton in Wyoming, trekked Mt. Kilimanjaro in Tanzania and Machu Pichu in Peru.  They have also hiked in Tibet and in the Himalayas to Mt. Everest Base Camp.

They cycled St. James Way (
El Camino de Santiago de Compostela) and cycled alongside the Danube from Germany to Hungary. They have scuba dived in the Bay Islands off the Honduran coast. 

Their adventurers are normally dedicated to raise funds for causes that are dear to them. 
Watch Joe & Lily summit Kilimanjaro.

Books by Dr. José Azel
In Reflections on FreedomJosé Azel brings together a collection of his columns published in prestigious newspapers.  Each article reveals his heartfelt and personal awareness of the importance of freedom in our lives.  They are his reflections after nearly sixty years of living and learning as a Cuban outside Cuba. In what has become his stylistic trademark, Professor Azel brilliantly introduces complex topics in brief journalistic articles.
Buy Now
En Reflexiones sobre la libertad José Azel reúne una colección de sus columnas publicadas en prestigiosos periódicos. Cada artículo revela su percepción sincera y personal de la importancia de la libertad en nuestras vidas. Son sus reflexiones después de casi sesenta años viviendo y aprendiendo como cubano fuera de Cuba.  En lo que ha resultado ser característica distintiva de sus artículos, el Profesor Azel introduce con brillantez complejos temas en  breves artículos de carácter periodístico.
Compre Aqui
Mañana in Cuba is a comprehensive analysis of contemporary Cuba with an incisive perspective of the Cuban frame of mind and its relevancy for Cuba's future.
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Pedazos y Vacíos is a collection of poems written in by Dr. Azel in his youth. Poems are in Spanish.
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