Cuba and the New China Model


the AZEL

PERSPECTIVE

Commentary on Cuba's Future, U.S. Foreign Policy & Individual Freedoms - Issue 310 B
 
José Azel's latest books "On Freedom" and "Sobre La Libertad" are now available on Amazon. 

Cuba and the New China Model (Previously published)

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Over the years I have debated with friends and foe over U.S. - Cuba policy and possible paths for Cuba’s democratization. In these encounters, I have argued against a school of thought that favored a China Model for Cuba. My ideological adversaries supported market-type economic changes in Cuba even without any political changes. I advocated for the primacy of individual freedoms over finances.
For the most part, I debated politely with well intentioned, honorable, individuals that sincerely believed that advancing economic reforms would bring about political reforms. They saw engagement as a different strategy to obtain freedom for the Cuban people over the long term.  Others, and these are not of my acquaintance, likely had only pecuniary interests and their motivation was suspect.

The “economic engagement” school of thought formulated eloquent arguments as to why seeking to improve the economic well-being of the Cuban people was the moral thing to do, even if it required disregarding the oppressiveness of the regime. I would counter, that in the absence of political changes, economic changes would only solidify financially the dictatorial regime.

In totalitarian economies activity flows mostly to, and from the regime’s institutions. Thus, to promote freedom it is imperative to advance political reforms hand in hand with economic reforms.  Economic reforms without freedom enrich mostly the regime and prolong the misery of a citizenry living without freedom. Some individuals might be slightly better off financially, but the pursuit of happiness requires freedom and freedom would be emasculated.

My debate adversaries usually pointed to China to support their position. Some of the most knowledgeable proponents preferred to use the Vietnamese Model as more in line with Cuba’s agricultural economy.  But the essential argument was the same: introduce economic reforms, and political reforms and freedom will follow in time.

Their China Model for Cuba was predicated on the market-style economic reforms introduced by Deng Xiaoping in 1979 following the death of Mao Zedong. Many observers hoped that, given these market reforms, China would eventually become a democracy. Never mind that China’s Communist Party always insisted that it would not share power. Cuba’s governing elite, who has not even implemented China-like reforms, has also made it clear that Cuba will not reform politically.

And, although in 1982, Deng Xiaoping introduced term limits of no more than two consecutive terms for the state president; those limits did not apply to the General Secretary of the Communist Party or to the Chairman of the Commission in charge of the military. It is in these positions that power really resides. Deng wielded much of his power through control of the military.

Nonetheless, believers in the “economic reforms will lead to political reforms” model still believed that China would democratize.  But on 11 March 2018, the 3,000 delegates of China’s National People’s Congress voted almost unanimously to end the term limits on the presidency, reversing Deng’s succession reforms.  This consolidated all power in the hands of China’s current leader Xi Jinping. He can now rule indefinitely in a lifelong tenure; a clear signal that there is no inherent path to democratization in the China Model.

Believers in the “economic reforms will lead to political reforms” model had also argued that the technologies necessary to carry out business, such as cellphones and the internet would help erode the Communist Party’s control. Not so, the Chinese government has invested heavily in developing web filters and using internet and video surveillance networks to reinforce the government’s ability to monitor the citizenry. Since assuming leadership in 2012, Xi has been consolidating his power and has overseen increased repression of China’s civil society, imprisoning writers and human rights activists.

We have now seen in China clear demonstration that, without a citizenry that is politically empowered, any economic changes introduced are only government permissions. Permission is not freedom. It is the same in Cuba with the inconsequential economic permissions to become self-employed in some  trades.

I hope my friends will now realize that the China Model they have advocated for Cuba is not a path to democratization, and that the only moral advocacy is for freedom.

Please let us know if you Like Issue 310 B - Cuba and the New China Model on Facebook this article.
We welcome your feedback.
Abrazos,
 
Lily & José
 
(click on the name to email Lily or Jose)
José Azel, Ph.D.

José Azel left Cuba in 1961 as a 13 year-old political exile in what has been dubbed Operation Pedro Pan - the largest unaccompanied child refugee movement in the history of the Western Hemisphere.  

He is currently dedicated to the in-depth analyses of Cuba's economic, social and political state, with a keen interest in post-Castro-Cuba strategies. Dr. Azel was a Senior Scholar at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies (ICCAS) at the University of Miami, Jose Azel has published extensively on Cuba related topics.

In 2012 and 2015, Dr. Azel testified in the U.S. Congress on U.S.-Cuba Policy, and U.S. National Security.  He is a frequent speaker and commentator on these and related topics on local, national and international media.  He holds undergraduate and masters degrees in business administration and a Ph.D. in International Affairs from the University of Miami.

José along with his wife Lily are avid skiers and adventure travelers.  In recent years they have climbed Grand Teton in Wyoming, trekked Mt. Kilimanjaro in Tanzania and Machu Pichu in Peru.  They have also hiked in Tibet and in the Himalayas to Mt. Everest Base Camp.

They cycled St. James Way (
El Camino de Santiago de Compostela) and cycled alongside the Danube from Germany to Hungary and throughout southern France.  They have scuba dived in the Bay Islands off the Honduran coast and in the Galapagos Islands. Most recently, they rafted for 17 days 220 miles in the Grand Canyon. 

Their adventurers are normally dedicated to raise funds for causes that are dear to them. 

Watch Joe & Lily summit Kilimanjaro.

Books by Dr. José Azel
José Azel’s writings are touched with the wisdom of a master, and the charm of an excellent communicator. Anyone who wishes to understand why countries do, or do not, progress will find in this book the best explanations. And, from these readings emerge numerous inferences: How and why do the good intentions of leftist collectivism lead countries to hell? Why is liberty not a sub product of prosperity, but rather one of its causes?

If it was in my power, this work would be required reading for all college and university students, and I would also recommend its reading to all politicians, journalists, and policymakers. With his writings Azel accomplishes what was achieved in France by Frédéric Bastiat, and in the United States by Henry Hazlitt: Azel brings together common sense with intelligent observation, and academic substance. Stupendous,

Carlos Alberto Montaner
                                                                   BUY NOW
Los escritos de José Azel están tocados por la sabiduría de un maestro y la amenidad de un excelente comunicador. Cualquiera que desee entender por qué los países progresan, o no, encontrará en este libro las mejores explicaciones. De estas lecturas surgen numerosas inferencias: ¿Cómo y por qué las buenas intenciones del colectivismo de izquierda llevan a los países al infierno? ¿Por qué la libertad no es un subproducto de la prosperidad, sino una de sus causas?

Si estuviera en mis manos, esta obra sería de obligada lectura de todos los estudiantes universitarios, pero además, le recomendaría su lectura a todos los políticos, periodistas y policy makers. Con sus escritos Azel logra lo que Frédéric Bastiat consiguiera en Francia y Henry Hazlitt en Estados Unidos: aunar el sentido común, la observación inteligente y la enjundia académica. Estupendo.

Carlos Alberto Montaner
                                                           Compre Aqui
"Liberty for beginners is much more than what the title promises. It is eighty themes touched with the wisdom of a master, and the charm of an excellent communicator. Anyone that wishes to understand why countries do, or do not progress, will find in this book the best explanations. Stupendous"

Carlos Alberto Montaner

"Libertad para novatos es mucho más de lo que promete el título. Son ochenta temas tocados con la sabiduría de un maestro y la amenidad de un excelente comunicador. Cualquier adulto que desee saber por qué progresan o se estancan los pueblos aquí encontrará las mejores explicaciones. Estupendo."

Carlos Alberto Montaner

Compre Aqui

In Reflections on FreedomJosé Azel brings together a collection of his columns published in prestigious newspapers.  Each article reveals his heartfelt and personal awareness of the importance of freedom in our lives.  They are his reflections after nearly sixty years of living and learning as a Cuban outside Cuba. In what has become his stylistic trademark, Professor Azel brilliantly introduces complex topics in brief journalistic articles.
En Reflexiones sobre la libertad José Azel reúne una colección de sus columnas publicadas en prestigiosos periódicos. Cada artículo revela su percepción sincera y personal de la importancia de la libertad en nuestras vidas. Son sus reflexiones después de casi sesenta años viviendo y aprendiendo como cubano fuera de Cuba.  En lo que ha resultado ser característica distintiva de sus artículos, el Profesor Azel introduce con brillantez complejos temas en  breves artículos de carácter periodístico.
Mañana in Cuba is a comprehensive analysis of contemporary Cuba with an incisive perspective of the Cuban frame of mind and its relevancy for Cuba's future.
Pedazos y Vacíos is a collection of poems written in by Dr. Azel in his youth. Poems are in Spanish.
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If you are receiving this email it is because we met you at some point on an adventure.

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Sunrise, FL 33325

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Let’s Dare to Think for Ourselves


the AZEL

PERSPECTIVE

Commentary on Cuba's Future, U.S. Foreign Policy & Individual Freedoms - Issue 309 B
 
José Azel's latest books "On Freedom" and "Sobre La Libertad" are now available on Amazon. 

Let’s Dare to Think for Ourselves (Previously published)

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This is not exactly a media bashing column. Mostly, I seek to explain, with help from the research of renowned cognitive psychologist Dr. Steven Pinker, how our judgements become negatively biased by the frequency and topic selection of news coverage.
Often our world outlook is reminiscent of Eeyore, that pessimistic, gloomy, depressed, anhedonic, stuffed donkey who is a friend of Winne-the-Pooh. We may feel this way because, our daily news intake is mostly stories about terrorism, crime, drug abuse, the dysfunction of our political system, and all types of domestic and international crises.

One reason for this predominance of reported bad news is the editorial dictum of “If it bleeds it leads” which prioritizes spectacular stories that pray on our anxieties.  Also, as Dr. Pinker points out, news coverage is about things that happen, and whereas bad things tend to happen quickly, good things unfold over time.  Good news is not in sync with the daily news cycle.

Norwegian sociologist Johan Galtung helped develop the concept of “news values” to explain how editors and journalists decide which piece of information is news, and which is not. He notes that “If a newspaper came out every fifty years, it would not report half a century of gossip and political scandals.  It would report momentous global changes such as the increase in life expectancy.”

This hierarchy and frequency of bad news reporting shapes our feelings and judgements. The work of psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman offers an explanation.  Prior to their work, the predominant view was that we made judgements by thinking rationally. But Tversky and Kahneman showed that instead of reason, we use a mental shortcut that relies on examples that immediately come to mind. They called this cognitive bias “Available Heuristic.”

Available Heuristic means that our opinions rely heavily on the latest news. We form judgements, not on a deliberate reasoned manner, but on the frequency an event comes to mind. Rather that reasoning, we judge based on what comes to mind; and what comes to mind is a function of media coverage.

In experiments on Available Heuristics, subjects were asked, “If a random word is taken from an English text, is it more likely that the word starts with a K, or that K is the third letter?” It turns out that we quickly think of words that begin with the letter K (kitchen, keep). And we conclude that words beginning with K are more likely than words with K in the third position (ask, bake).  We are wrong; a typical text contains twice as many words that have K as the third letter than K as the first letter.

Car crashes kill far more people than plane crashes. Yet, many people fear flying, and few fear driving. Plane accidents always make the news, but car accidents seldom do. This is the sort of distortion in our reasoning produced by the negatively biased topic selection of news coverage. On the basis of Available Heuristics we put aside thinking, and judge on topics based on the reported frequency of their occurrence. Bad news is what first comes to mind, thus we think that the world is falling apart. It is not.

In his work, Steven Pinker has shown statistically that humanity has made spectacular progress in every measure of human well-being. Today, we live longer, the world is healthier, better fed, wealthier, safer, more peaceful, freer, more literate, more knowledgeable, etc. But you would not know this by the relentless negativity of the news coverage. Smallpox, the infectious disease that killed over 300 million people in the 20th century, has now been eradicated. Polio is almost there with just 37 cases reported worldwide in 2016. Where are the headlines?  

The media may argue that it is compelled to focus on the negative to fulfill its role as watchdog. Perhaps, but to avoid media induced pessimism, we must take up Immanuel Kant’s challenge of Sapere aude; that is, we must undertake a program of intellectual self-liberation. We must dare to think for ourselves.

Please let us know if you Like Issue 309 B - Let’s Dare to Think for Ourselves on Facebook this article.
We welcome your feedback.
Abrazos,
 
Lily & José
 
(click on the name to email Lily or Jose)
José Azel, Ph.D.

José Azel left Cuba in 1961 as a 13 year-old political exile in what has been dubbed Operation Pedro Pan - the largest unaccompanied child refugee movement in the history of the Western Hemisphere.  

He is currently dedicated to the in-depth analyses of Cuba's economic, social and political state, with a keen interest in post-Castro-Cuba strategies. Dr. Azel was a Senior Scholar at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies (ICCAS) at the University of Miami, Jose Azel has published extensively on Cuba related topics.

In 2012 and 2015, Dr. Azel testified in the U.S. Congress on U.S.-Cuba Policy, and U.S. National Security.  He is a frequent speaker and commentator on these and related topics on local, national and international media.  He holds undergraduate and masters degrees in business administration and a Ph.D. in International Affairs from the University of Miami.

José along with his wife Lily are avid skiers and adventure travelers.  In recent years they have climbed Grand Teton in Wyoming, trekked Mt. Kilimanjaro in Tanzania and Machu Pichu in Peru.  They have also hiked in Tibet and in the Himalayas to Mt. Everest Base Camp.

They cycled St. James Way (
El Camino de Santiago de Compostela) and cycled alongside the Danube from Germany to Hungary and throughout southern France.  They have scuba dived in the Bay Islands off the Honduran coast and in the Galapagos Islands. Most recently, they rafted for 17 days 220 miles in the Grand Canyon. 

Their adventurers are normally dedicated to raise funds for causes that are dear to them. 

Watch Joe & Lily summit Kilimanjaro.

Books by Dr. José Azel
José Azel’s writings are touched with the wisdom of a master, and the charm of an excellent communicator. Anyone who wishes to understand why countries do, or do not, progress will find in this book the best explanations. And, from these readings emerge numerous inferences: How and why do the good intentions of leftist collectivism lead countries to hell? Why is liberty not a sub product of prosperity, but rather one of its causes?

If it was in my power, this work would be required reading for all college and university students, and I would also recommend its reading to all politicians, journalists, and policymakers. With his writings Azel accomplishes what was achieved in France by Frédéric Bastiat, and in the United States by Henry Hazlitt: Azel brings together common sense with intelligent observation, and academic substance. Stupendous,

Carlos Alberto Montaner
                                                                   BUY NOW
Los escritos de José Azel están tocados por la sabiduría de un maestro y la amenidad de un excelente comunicador. Cualquiera que desee entender por qué los países progresan, o no, encontrará en este libro las mejores explicaciones. De estas lecturas surgen numerosas inferencias: ¿Cómo y por qué las buenas intenciones del colectivismo de izquierda llevan a los países al infierno? ¿Por qué la libertad no es un subproducto de la prosperidad, sino una de sus causas?

Si estuviera en mis manos, esta obra sería de obligada lectura de todos los estudiantes universitarios, pero además, le recomendaría su lectura a todos los políticos, periodistas y policy makers. Con sus escritos Azel logra lo que Frédéric Bastiat consiguiera en Francia y Henry Hazlitt en Estados Unidos: aunar el sentido común, la observación inteligente y la enjundia académica. Estupendo.

Carlos Alberto Montaner
                                                           Compre Aqui
"Liberty for beginners is much more than what the title promises. It is eighty themes touched with the wisdom of a master, and the charm of an excellent communicator. Anyone that wishes to understand why countries do, or do not progress, will find in this book the best explanations. Stupendous"

Carlos Alberto Montaner

"Libertad para novatos es mucho más de lo que promete el título. Son ochenta temas tocados con la sabiduría de un maestro y la amenidad de un excelente comunicador. Cualquier adulto que desee saber por qué progresan o se estancan los pueblos aquí encontrará las mejores explicaciones. Estupendo."

Carlos Alberto Montaner

Compre Aqui

In Reflections on FreedomJosé Azel brings together a collection of his columns published in prestigious newspapers.  Each article reveals his heartfelt and personal awareness of the importance of freedom in our lives.  They are his reflections after nearly sixty years of living and learning as a Cuban outside Cuba. In what has become his stylistic trademark, Professor Azel brilliantly introduces complex topics in brief journalistic articles.
En Reflexiones sobre la libertad José Azel reúne una colección de sus columnas publicadas en prestigiosos periódicos. Cada artículo revela su percepción sincera y personal de la importancia de la libertad en nuestras vidas. Son sus reflexiones después de casi sesenta años viviendo y aprendiendo como cubano fuera de Cuba.  En lo que ha resultado ser característica distintiva de sus artículos, el Profesor Azel introduce con brillantez complejos temas en  breves artículos de carácter periodístico.
Mañana in Cuba is a comprehensive analysis of contemporary Cuba with an incisive perspective of the Cuban frame of mind and its relevancy for Cuba's future.
Pedazos y Vacíos is a collection of poems written in by Dr. Azel in his youth. Poems are in Spanish.
To friend, follow or email author click on the icons below:
Facebook
Twitter
Email
Click here to:
View this email in your browser

Access past issues
Access automated translations
Facilitate sharing
Print from your browser
Copyright © 2022 Azel & Associates, All rights reserved.
If you are receiving this email it is because we met you at some point on an adventure.

Our mailing address is:
Azel & Associates
440 Sawgrass Parkway, Suite 106
Sunrise, FL 33325

Want to change how you receive these emails?
You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list