CUBA: WHERE ARE WE HEADED?
The Castro Dictatorship: Crushing Cubans at Home While Endangering National Security Across the Hemisphere
By Nestor T. Carbonell
Nestor Carbonell, author of Why Cuba Matters
Cuba is on the verge of collapse. Blackouts, misery and suffering now are part of daily life. Yet recent developments offer hope for a breakthrough that could liberate the long-struggling island.
Trump spurred the process in December 2025 by invoking the Monroe Doctrine, essentially reasserting U.S. preeminence in the Western Hemisphere. Then, in January he declared a national emergency to impose, with punitive tariffs, an oil blockade against Cuba for its “alignment with hostile countries and malign actors” and for “hosting military and intelligence capabilities on the island.”
He also enlisted his highly qualified and respected Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, to develop and implement a comprehensive Cuba Liberation Plan.
President Trump’s recent comments offer some insight on how he views the situation. Cuba, he said, is a failed state, about to fall. He said negotiations are going on with high-level Cuban officials — mainly relatives or proxies of Raul Castro. He added that those parties are eager to strike a deal giving the U.S. ample powers to take the lead. Time will tell how eager those parties actually are. But in what appear to be preliminary concessions, the regime announced the release of 2,010 prisoners (though it is not clear whether they include any of the regime’s 1,200 political prisoners) and approved economic reforms allowing Cuban exiles to invest and own businesses on the island.
While Cuba, under Castro-Communist rule, has failed in almost everything, it has prevailed for more than 67 years in suppressing internal opposition and deceiving or misleading many U.S. Presidents. And it is worth pointing out that on the other side of the present negotiations, at least indirectly, is one of the Castro brothers responsible for Cuba’s decades of tyranny, terrorism and crimes against humanity. While that may be necessary under current circumstances, the U.S. can only succeed if we negotiate from a position of strength and do not allow the despot, his family and their henchmen to remain in power.
Prominent Cuban exiles, many of whom left the island penniless and later grew wealthy in the U.S., are willing to invest in Cuba and contribute to its rebuilding. But having learned from experience, they will only risk their hard-earned capital if freedom reigns again under the rule of law. Secretary Rubio seems to share that view. “You cannot fix the economy,” he said, “if you don’t change the system of government.”
History shows that the Castro brothers have routinely used the ploy of economic reforms to dupe the U.S and prolong their tyranny, while enriching themselves, their families and cohorts. After the Soviet Union imploded and Cuba lost its vital lifeline in 1991, Fidel Castro dollarized the economy and introduced market-oriented reforms. State farms were allowed to form cooperatives, self-managed businesses were licensed, and major international corporations were invited to invest in Cuba. The perceived economic opening, however, was short-lived. Not one to allow capitalism to undermine his regime, Fidel Castro soon reintroduced rigid state controls.
Then, in 2015, President Obama decided to seek an opening in Cuba by offering incentives and financial relief to the Castro regime under Raul, who was deemed more pragmatic than Fidel. Obama restored diplomatic relations, removed Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, exchanged political prisoners, and eased restrictions on U.S. investments and joint ventures in Cuba. The expectation was that these concessions would induce an expansion of the private sector and, eventually, liberalize the regime. This delusion was soon crushed by Raul Castro. Standing before the Seventh Communist Congress, he said: “We are not naïve,” adding that “powerful external forces” hoped to “create agents of change to end the revolution.”
Clearly, anyone negotiating for the freedom of Cubans today should not mistake easily-reversible “reforms” as good-faith efforts to open the island’s economy and ease the plight of the Cuban people.
And while the humanitarian crisis in Cuba is a most grievous tragedy, it is not the only urgent reason to end the totalitarian regime. There is a compelling need to counter the very real threat the regime poses to the security of the U.S. and the Americas, in collusion with China, Russia, Iran and narco-terrorist organizations. They are not just a competitive partnership, but a most dangerous axis of malign forces 90 miles from our shores.
As reported in December 2024 by The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), China is currently operating four electronic espionage spy bases in Cuba capable of collecting signals intelligence (SIGINT) on the southeastern seaboard of the U.S., an area brimming with military bases, combat command headquarters, space launch centers, and military testing sites. They also can monitor naval movements in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. The largest of these bases, in Bejucal, near Havana, has technology to intercept and potentially interfere with U.S. satellite communications, military transmissions and space launch data.
In addition, China’s People’s Armed Police (PAP), which helped to quash the 2019 Hong Kong protests, trained Cuba’s Special National Brigade, or “Black Berets,” to suppress the July 11, 2021 civic uprising across the island. The Berets are now trying to quell the growing protests in Cuba, which the U.S. should support by providing intelligence, resources and access to Starlink.
Cuba also ranks among Vladimir Putin’s geostrategic priorities, along with Nicaragua and Venezuela. According to reliable intelligence reports, Russian Aerospace Defense Forces operate in these countries’ dual-use ground-based GLONASS (Global Navigation Satellite System) stations, which are being used for intelligence gathering, surveillance and tracking U.S. activities. Cuba’s facility is reportedly based at the Institute of Applied Astronomy in Havana.
Meanwhile the Cuban regime continues to share with China and Russia classified U.S. intelligence and military information — an effort that peaked years back drawing on two of the spies most damaging to U.S. interests: Ana Belen Montes and Ambassador Victor Manuel Rocha. Cuba also supports Russia’s war in Ukraine, enabling the recruitment of some 15,000 Cubans to fight there for Moscow.
Together these factors call for a well-integrated Cuba liberation strategy with congressional backing, Inter-American support and Cuban democratic involvement. A bold America First leadership is essential, but it must not be America alone. Collective actions — diplomatic, economic and military — under the Rio Treaty may be needed to achieve our goal in Cuba.
The next steps the U.S. takes will be critical. Following are some thoughts about the three key phases of the strategy and the respective legal planks.
PHASE I – Commit to Cuba’s freedom while safeguarding the security of the U.S and the Americas. Since the ongoing negotiations may not provide the expected opening in Cuba and the withdrawal of foreign adversaries from the island, the Trump administration should consider invoking the Congressional Joint Resolution (Law 87-733), signed by President Kennedy on October 3, 1962 just before the Missile Crisis. It reads, in part:
The United States is determined a) to prevent by whatever means may be necessary… the Marxism-Leninism regime in Cuba from extending its aggressive or subversive activities to any part of this Hemisphere; b) to prevent in Cuba the creation or use of any externally supported military capability endangering the security of the United States; and c) to work with the OAS and with freedom-loving Cubans to support the aspirations of the Cuban people for self-determination.
PHASE II – Suspend, and subsequently lift, the U.S. embargo, only when the prescribed conditions are met. According to the LIBERTAD Act of 1996 (Helms- Burton Act), the U.S. cannot lift or suspend the U.S. embargo unless the Cuban government meets certain conditions, including the release of all political prisoners, respect for human rights, legalization of political activity, dissolution of the repressive state security apparatus, settlement of U.S. claims over confiscated properties, commitment to free elections, etc.
PHASE III – Establish the Cuban institutions required for peace, freedom and prosperity. The transition to a free and democratic Cuba must start with a provisional government of national unity, excluding the Castro family and government officials with criminal records, which will abide by a new Constitution that offers all the necessary guarantees. The Cubans won’t have to improvise, since they can, and should, reinstate the applicable parts of their legitimate 1940 Constitution, which was the leitmotif of the struggle against Batista and Castro. Under that Constitution, the provisional government would dismantle the totalitarian apparatus, initiate the privatization and resurgence of the economy with foreign capital and technology, pursue the moral regeneration of the country, and lay the foundations for a new beginning with free elections and the rule of law.
If we forge ahead judiciously with unwavering determination and faith in our cause, we will be able to liberate Cuba and restore peace and security in this Hemisphere.
Let’s not miss this great opportunity.
