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Monday, November 30, 2020

WILL BIDEN MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO U.S. POLICY ON CUBA?

 November 30, 2020
Cuba Insight
A publication of the Cuban Studies Institute

WILL BIDEN MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO U.S. POLICY ON CUBA?

*By Jaime Suchlicki

 

In an interview during the presidential campaign, V.P. Joe Biden was asked about his Cuba policy if elected President.  He responded that he would follow the Obama policy.  Did Mr. Biden mean that he would offer General Raúl Castro more unilateral concessions with little or nothing in return?  The Obama policies failed to secure any change regarding respect for human rights on the island, the return of confiscated properties, the reduction of military presence in Venezuela, the return of terrorists hiding in the island or moderation in Cuba’s anti-U.S. policies.

The continuation of the disastrous Obama Cuba policies will only prolong the agony of the Cuban people and delay a return to a more humane regime in Cuba.  How about a policy of more tourism and humanitarian aid in exchange for more freedom and respect for human rights?  Or perhaps it would be best to reserve any initiatives for after General Raúl Castro (who is now 89) is no longer in the picture.  At a time of transition in Cuba, U.S. policy and initiatives could be effective.  

Historically, unilateral concessions toward totalitarian regimes have failed to achieve U.S. objectives.  Adversaries pocket the concessions and ask for more.

Only a no-nonsense policy of quid pro quo will achieve, at least, partial objectives in Cuba.  The reality of a hardline entrenched military Marxist regime in the island and in Venezuela represent real challenges to the new Biden administration.  “Making nice” will not change that reality.

Read on website
* Jaime Suchlicki is Director and founder of the Cuban Studies Institute. He is the author of Cuba: From Columbus to Castro, now in its fifth edition; Mexico: From Montezuma to NAFTA, now in its second edition and the recently published Breve Historia de Cuba.  He is a highly regarded consultant to the public and private sectors.

Published in The Inter-American Dialogue’s Daily Latin America Advisor on November 19, 2020.
This is a publication of the Cuban Studies Institute. 

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On Cuba, I Told You So


the AZEL

PERSPECTIVE

Commentary on Cuba's Future, U.S. Foreign Policy & Individual Freedoms - Issue 26A
 
This Perspective was first published in 2016.

On Cuba, I Told You So

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“I told you so” is a childish, inelegant expression unbecoming any thoughtful essayist. Forgive me, but that is what my heart screamed when reading General Castro’s demands for normalizing relations with the United States.

The general has upped the ante setting preconditions that the United States must: return the US base at Guantanamo Bay, lift all economic sanctions, and compensate his country for damages, in excess of US$116 billion taxpayer dollars. All this before the two nations can reestablish normal relations. In his view, “if these problems aren’t resolved, this diplomatic rapprochement wouldn’t make any sense.”
General Raul Castro
Last year, I wrote an article in which I sought to make the point that those advocating for a unilateral, unconditional change in US-Cuba policy had failed to ask how Cuba would respond to such an overture. We now have the answer to that question.

I also anticipated in that article that Castro would demand compensation. Not a particularly dazzling exercise in clairvoyance since Cuba has presented its demands for reparations yearly to the United Nations for decades.

I noted then that not probing how Castro would respond was a curious omission since the formulation of US foreign policy is often compared to a chess game in which every prospective move is analyzed and weighted with an eye to what the adversary’s counter move would be. I argued that it was irresponsible to advocate for a policy change without offering, at least a theory of, what the other party would do. A foreign policy move seeks reciprocity.

Nonetheless, advocates of an unconditional change in US-Cuba policy succeeded in their quest, as evidenced by President Barack Obama’s December 17 announcement to seek normalization, and his State of the Union message urging Congress to unilaterally eliminate all economic sanctions. With that success, however, comes the duty of accepting responsibility for the outcomes of their advocacy and recommendations.

The often repeated rationale was that the sanctions policy had failed and a new approach was needed, but no thought was given as to what Cuba would do. Refusing to anticipate Cuba’s countermove, those responsible for this policy disaster shifted the debate. They argued instead that unilaterally ending economic sanctions would work to strengthen Cuba’s self-employed sector and, thus, foster a civil society more independent of the government. Eventually this more autonomous civil society would function as agents of change for democratic governance.

That argument is plausible, but flawed. In a totalitarian system, even those working in self-employed activities are beholden to the government for the very existence of their businesses in myriad bureaucratic ways. Self-employment success in a totalitarian setting does not confer independence from the government.

On the contrary, it makes the newly minted entrepreneurs more beholden to the government for continued operating permits and the like. Thus, success does not breed independence from the government but more dependence, as few are willing to risk their livelihood antagonizing their all-powerful patrons.

During the student protest in Tiananmen Square, China’s business community did not come out in support of the students. More recently we witnessed a similar situation in Hong Kong. Sadly, these business communities were not willing to jeopardize their positions and support the students promoting democratic change. Why would we think that a Cuban business community bound to an all powerful state for their very existence would act differently?

So what should happen now that Castro has summarily dismissed Obama’s overtures by setting onerous preconditions? If we are truly interested in promoting democracy in Cuba, the White House, the New York Times editorial board, and all those that have advocated unconditional concessions to the Castro regime, should acknowledge that they have misread the nature of the regime. Noblesse obliges; whoever claims to be noble must act nobly.

Most likely the spin machine will work overtime to develop all kinds of doctrinaire arguments, bordering on sophistry, as to why we should stay the new course, such as: General Castro is just laying out a starting negotiating position, or, we tried economic sanctions for half a century, should we not give this policy some time?

We may even begin to see arguments suggesting that Cuba may indeed be entitled to compensation and that the naval base in Guantanamo is an unnecessary, expensive relic of the Cold War.
Perhaps I should have written a different article titled, “What Would the President Do When General Castro Embarrasses His New Cuba Policy?”

Please let us know if you Like Issue 26A - On Cuba, I Told You So on Facebook this article.
This article was originally published in English in the PanAm Post and in Spanish in El Nuevo Herald.
 
José Azel, Ph.D.
José Azel left Cuba in 1961 as a 13 year-old political exile in what has been dubbed Operation Pedro Pan - the largest unaccompanied child refugee movement in the history of the Western Hemisphere.  

He is currently dedicated to the in-depth analyses of Cuba's economic, social and political state, with a keen interest in post-Castro-Cuba strategies as a Senior Scholar at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies (ICCAS) at the University of Miami and has published extensively on Cuba related topics.

In 2012 and 2015, Dr. Azel testified in the U.S. Congress on U.S.-Cuba Policy, and U.S. National Security.  He is a frequent speaker and commentator on these and related topics on local, national and international media.  He holds undergraduate and masters degrees in business administration and a Ph.D. in International Affairs from the University of Miami. 

Dr. Azel is author of Mañana in Cuba: The Legacy of Castroism and Transitional Challenges for Cuba, published in March 2010 and of Pedazos y Vacios, a collection of poems he wrote as a young exile in the 1960's.

José along with his wife Lily are avid skiers and adventure travelers.  In recent years they have climbed Grand Teton in Wyoming, trekked Mt. Kilimanjaro in Tanzania and Machu Pichu in Peru.  They have also hiked in Tibet and in the Himalayas to Mt. Everest Base Camp.

They cycled St. James Way (
El Camino de Santiago de Compostela) and cycled alongside the Danube from Germany to Hungary. They have scuba dived in the Bay Islands off the Honduran coast. 

Their adventurers are normally dedicated to raise funds for causes that are dear to them. 
Watch Joe & Lily summit Kilimanjaro.

Books by Dr. José Azel
Mañana in Cuba is a comprehensive analysis of contemporary Cuba with an incisive perspective of the Cuban frame of mind and its relevancy for Cuba's future.
Buy now

 
Pedazos y Vacíos is a collection of poems written in by Dr. Azel in his youth. Poems are in Spanish.
Buy now
To friend, follow or email author click on the icons below:
Copyright © 2015 Azel & Associates, All rights reserved.
If you are receiving this email it is because we met you at some point on an adventure.

Our mailing address is:
Azel & Associates
440 Sawgrass Parkway, Suite 106
Sunrise, FL 33325

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We really do need your support!

Mail from CubaArchive.org
November 29, 2020

Vea abajo la versión en español.

We really do need your support!
 
Dear friends,
 
2020 has been full of challenges. We hope you are well and weathering the storm.
 
Cuba Archive labored on and has had a busy year, achieving many accomplishments (see highlights below). But... we cannot continue without your support!
 
The Cuban dictatorship devotes vast financial and human resources to spread its influence and propaganda; it uses the entire state apparatus and extensive global networks of agents, well-funded collaborators, and allies that it has built over decades. Meanwhile, all our work is produced by just three part-time professionals, a few freelance contractors, and lots of donated services. Yet, our results exceed —in scope, quality, and impact— those of similar projects worldwide with much larger staff and budgets. Because truth is disproportionately effective,  our work does make a difference.  
 
Cuba Archive promotes human rights particularly through research by disseminating fact-based victim-centered information in English and Spanish and doing targeted international advocacy in three major areas:
  • The TRUTH AND MEMORY project defends the right to life and builds capacity on transitional justice issues to lay a foundation for an effective transition to democracy in Cuba. It informs responsibly on the most egregious human rights abuses while honoring the victims, comforting the survivors, and building historical memory. Its database on deaths and disappearance, a work in progress since 2006, has over 11,300 cases to date and is an outstanding tool in the human rights field. Its numerous research and objective victim-centered reports address aspects not covered, or little covered, by other projects.
  • The CUBA SALUD project dispels myths on Cuban healthcare, particularly on the trafficking of Cuban health workers. Cuba Archive was the first organization that exposed the export of workers as state-run human trafficking; since 2009, it has researched and raised awareness of the plight of Cuba’s “internationalists” that deliver the regime’s largest source of revenues and are its favored foreign policy tool. It is countering Cuba’s huge global propaganda campaign for the Nobel Peace Prize for its emergency medical brigade; we have grounds to believe Cuba could actually be awarded the Nobel, which would be a terrible blow to freedom that further propels this exploitative labor scheme.
  • The CUBA’S INTERNATIONAL INTERVENTIONS project, that documents and raises awareness on the Cuban regime’s nefarious track record, methodology, and plans. Our book on Cuba’s intervention in Venezuela, published in 2019 in both English and Spanish, serves as a warning especially for Latin America and the Caribbean, to where the Cuban regime remains committed to expanding
Our work is cited in many leading media venues throughout the world and our reports/newsletters are useful to governments, policy tanks, scholars, researchers, and international organizations. It also reaches civil society activists and other important actors inside Cuba starved for information. You can get a glimpse of our large accumulated body of work on our website, in both the Englishand Spanish pages.
 
As we face our greatest challenge for survival, much more must be done to advance the urgent aspirations of those living in oppression, especially at this critical juncture of deep economic crisis and an intended generational succession in Cuba.
 
Please help us continue this important work! All donations help. Please contribute via Pay Pal or send a check in the name of Free Society Project to P.O. Box 612224, North Miami, FL 33261-2224. Ongoing, you may also support our Go Fund Me Campaign or consider a Facebook campaign on Cuba Archive’s behalf on your own birthday. (Donations in the U.S. are tax-deductible for certain individuals.)
 
To our supporters, our heartfelt thanks; to all our readers, thanks for your interest and please help us disseminate our work. 
 
Best wishes to you and yours,
 
Cuba Archive’s Board of Directors and Staff

Highlights of Cuba Archive's work in 2020
  • Launched a new website with quality content in two languages reaching a large worldwide audience.
  • Addressed over 60 informational inquiries from journalists, scholars/researchers, organizations, students, and assorted interested parties from different countries.
  • Received extensive media coverage from leading outlets in several countries.
  • Constantly updated the online database of deaths/disappearances by gathering direct testimony, information, and archival materials as well as researching historical events: added almost 800 records for the current total of over 11,300 individual records.
  • Published numerous reports, including an in-depth study of deaths and disappearances during the Batista dictatorship, three parts of a five-part series on Coronavirus in Cuba, and in-depth reports on Cuba’s medical diplomacy in Argentina and Guatemala.
  • Developed an online map of Cuba’s medical missions in Latin America and the Caribbean and a table of COVID emergency brigades around the world, both updated in real-time.
  • Presented our work at several events: conferences in New York, Washington, D.C., and Miami, as well as virtually in the Oslo Freedom Forum 2020 and in webinars hosted by universities or organizations in the U.S., Peru, and Argentina.
  • Launched the “Free Cuban Doctors against COVID” initiative to facilitate and promote hiring Cuban doctors directly instead of through the trafficking scheme run by the Cuban regime.
  • Countered Cuba’s huge global propaganda campaign for the Nobel Peace Prize for its emergency medical brigade
  • Had informational and advocacy exchanges with officials from several governments and many organizations, scholars, etc.
  • Collaborated with many international organizations as well as human rights defenders from Cuba.
  • Supported human rights defenders in Cuba with humanitarian assistance.
  • Regularly posted unique information on social media (Facebook and Twitter), including an average of eight monthly profiles of selected victims.

Reproduction and redistribution of this material are authorized as long as the source is cited. 

Free Society Project, Inc., 2020. ©All rights reserved.
www.CubaArchive.org

¡Necesitamos su apoyo!
 
Queridos amigos,
 
Esperamos que se encuentren bien y manejando los grandes desafíos que ha traido la pandemia
 
A pesar de muchos retos, Archivo Cuba ha seguido trabajado fuertemente y ha tenido muchos logros (vea abajo aspectos destacados). ¡Pero no podemos continuar sin su apoyo!
 
La dictadura cubana dedica enormes recursos financieros y humanos a difundir su influencia y propaganda; utiliza todo el aparato estatal y extensas redes globales (construidas durante décadas) de agentes, aliados y colaboradores bien financiados. Mientras tanto, todo nuestro trabajo lo produce un equipo muy pequeño de profesionales a tiempo parcial que donan mucho de su tiempo y pocos contratistas independientes. Sin embargo, nuestros resultados superan —en alcance, calidad e impacto— a proyectos similares en todo el mundo con mucho más personal y elevados presupuestos. Como la verdad es desproporcionadamente efectiva, nuestro trabajo sí hace una diferencia.
 
Archivo Cuba promueve los derechos humanos a través de investigaciones, difusión en inglés y español de información objetiva y centrada en las víctimas, así como actividades de injerencia internacional. Se centra en tres áreas principales:
  • El proyecto VERDAD Y MEMORIA defiende el derecho a la vida y trata temas de justicia transicional para sentar las bases de una transición a la democracia en Cuba. Brinda información sobre los abusos más atroces a los derechos humanos a la vez que honra a las víctimas, reconforta a los sobrevivientes y construye memoria histórica.La base de datos sobre muertes y desapariciones, que es un trabajo en progreso desde 2006, incorpora más de 11.300 casos hasta la fecha y se destaca en el campo de los derechos humanos. Sus numerosas investigaciones e informes objetivos centrados en las víctimas abordan aspectos que no están cubiertos o son poco cubiertos por otros proyectos.
  • El proyecto CUBA SALUD disipa los mitos sobre la salud cubana, particularmente sobre la trata de trabajadores de la salud cubanos. Archivo Cuba fue la primera organización que denunció la exportación de trabajadores como trata de personas por parte de un estado y desde 2009 ha investigado y creado conciencia sobre la situación de los "internacionalistas" de Cuba, que constituyen la mayor fuente de ingresos del régimen y son una de sus herramienta de política exterior favoritas. El proyecto contrarresta la enorme campaña de propaganda mundial de Cuba para obtener el Premio Nobel de la Paz para su brigada médica de emergencia, el cual Cuba tiene posibilidades reales de obtener, lo que sería un golpe terrible a la libertad que impulsaría aún más dicho esquema laboral explotador. 
  • El proyecto sobre las INTERVENCIONES INTERNA-CIONALES DE CUBA documenta y sensibiliza sobre la trayectoria, metodología y planes nefastos del régimen cubano. Nuestro libro sobre la intervención de Cuba en Venezuela, publicado en 2019 tanto en inglés como en español, es una advertencia sobre los planes de expansión del régimen cubano.
El trabajo de Archivo Cuba se cita en medios de prensa del mayor alcance y prestigio en todo el mundo y sus informes son usados por gobiernos, académicos, investigadores y organizaciones internacionales. También llega a activistas de la sociedad civil y otros actores importantes dentro de Cuba que están hambrientos de información objetiva. Puede verse el gran volumen de trabajo acumulado en el sitio web tanto en las páginas en inglés como en español.
 
Enfrentamos un gran desafío por la supervivencia sabiendo que hay tanto más que hacer para promover las aspiraciones urgentes de los que viven en opresión, especialmente en esta coyuntura crítica de profunda crisis económica y sucesión generacional prevista en Cuba.
 
¡Ayúdenos a continuar con este importante trabajo! Todas las donaciones ayudan. Contribuya a través de Pay Pal o envíe un cheque a nombre de Free Society Project a P.O. Box 612224, North Miami, FL 33261-2224. También puede apoyar nuestra campaña Go Fund Me o dedicar una campaña de Facebook a Archivo Cuba en su propio cumpleaños. (Las donaciones en los EE.UU. son deducibles de impuestos para ciertas personas).
 
A los que nos han apoyado, nuestro sincero agradecimiento; a todos nuestros lectores, gracias por su interés y por favor ayúdenos a difundir nuestro trabajo.

La Junta Directiva de Archivo Cuba / Free Society Project
 
Aspectos destacados del trabajo del Archivo de Cuba en 2020
  • Se lanzó un nuevo sitio web en dos idiomas.
  • Se abordam hasta la fecha más de 60 consultas informativas de periodistas, académicos, investigadores, organizaciones, estudiantes y una variedad de partes interesadas de diferentes países.
  • Se ha alcanzado una amplia cobertura mediática en principales medios de prensa de varios países.
  • Se actualiza constantemente la base de datos de muertes/desapariciones mediante la recopilación de testimonios directos, información y materiales de archivo, así como investigando eventos históricos. Con más de 11.300 registros individuales, en 2020 se han agregado casi 800 registros a la base de datos.
  • Se han publicado numerosos informes, incluido un estudio sobre muertes y desapariciones durante la dictadura de Batista, tres partes de una serie sobre el coronavirus en Cuba e informes sobre la diplomacia médica cubana en Argentina y Guatemala.
  • Se desarrolló un mapa de las misiones médicas de Cuba en América Latina y el Caribe y una tabla de brigadas de emergencia COVID alrededor del mundo, y ambos están actualizados en tiempo real en el sitio web.
  • Se ha presentado el trabajo en varios eventos: conferencias en Nueva York, Washington, D.C. y Miami, así como virtualmente en el Oslo Freedom Forum 2020 y en webinars organizados por universidades u organizaciones en los Estados Unidos, Perú y Argentina.
  • Se lanzó la iniciativa “Médicos Cubanos Libres” para facilitar y promover la contratación de médicos cubanos directamente en lugar de los esquemas de trata que maneja el régimen cubano.
  • Se contrarresta la enorme campaña de propaganda mundial para otorgar el Premio Nobel de la Paz para la brigada médica de emergencia de Cuba.
  • Se han tenido numerosos intercambios de información e injerencia con funcionarios de varios gobiernos y muchas organizaciones, académicos, etc.
  • Se colabora ​​con muchas organizaciones internacionales y defensores de derechos humanos de Cuba.
  • Se apoya a defensores de derechos humanos en Cuba con asistencia humanitaria.
  • Se publica periódicamente información única en las redes sociales (Facebook y Twitter), incluyendo un promedio de ocho perfiles mensuales de víctimas en el día del aniversario de su muerte o desaparición.

Se autoriza la distribución y reproducción de este
material siempre que se cite su procedencia
.

Free Society Project, Inc. ©Derechos Reservados, 2020.
www.ArchivoCuba.org

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Sunday, November 29, 2020

2020: The Year of Fear.

"President-Elect Karen".

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Elizabeth Warren parody by Kat Timpf

CNBC Poll: 73% Say Trump Won, 66% Say 'Never Concede'

Trump voters back President for long haul

 on 28th November 2020 @ 8.00pm 
 the vast majority of trump voters     81      said they would not give biden a chance as president © press
'The vast majority of Trump voters — 81% — said they would not give Biden a chance as president'
News Thud

According to a new CNBC poll, supporters of President Donald Trump have rvealed their unwavering loyalty to the president.

Just 3 percent of Trump voters said they believe the President should concede the Joe Biden.

According to the poll analysis:

“A mere 3% of Trump voters believe he should concede to Biden and start the peaceful transfer of power."

"Another 31% want the president to fight in court until states certify results. Two-thirds, or 66%, think Trump should never concede."

“The vast majority of Trump voters — 81% — said they would not give Biden a chance as president. Only 19% said they would.”

Have your say - ⇓ Hit the comments below ⇓

the analysis suggested the sentiment would not affect the final outcome of the election © press
The analysis suggested the sentiment would not affect the final outcome of the election.

The analysis suggested the sentiment would not affect the final outcome of the election.

But those who voted for Trump appear to back the President for the long haul.

TRENDING: Trump Big Tech Must Be Stripped of Immunities for National Security 

The analysis added:

“Loyalty to Trump runs deep among the respondents. Asked with whom they would identify if the president left the GOP, 72% responded to Trump’s party, while 28% answered the Republican Party."

Mgid

The poll of 1,203 U.S. adults who voted for Mr. Trump was conducted Nov. 18-21, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

the poll of 1 203 u s  adults who voted for mr  trump was conducted nov  18 21  with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 8 percentage points© press
The poll of 1,203 U.S. adults who voted for Mr. Trump was conducted Nov. 18-21, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points

Earleir this week, Trump weighed in the battle being fought by his legal team, telling reporters facts are on his side, but time is not.

The election results are currently being contested as testimonies and affidavits were collected by the campaign’s legal team.

“As to whether or not I can get this apparatus moving this quickly–because time isn’t on our side…,” Trump said.

“Everything else is on our side. Facts are on our side.”

Trump's remarks came after Sidney Powell released the "Kraken" in the form of two lawsuits in Georgia and Michigan.