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Monday, November 4, 2024

Is "Guided Democracy" in Cuba's Future?

the AZEL

PERSPECTIVE

Commentary on Cuba's Future, U.S. Foreign Policy & Individual Freedoms - Issue 381 B
 
José Azel's latest books "On Freedom" and "Sobre La Libertad" are now available on Amazon. 

Is "Guided Democracy" in Cuba's Future? (Previously published)

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When Indonesia gained its independence in 1945, the nation had no history of democratic self- government. Indonesia’s governing experience was mostly as a police state under Dutch and Japanese rule. Similarly, when Cuba regains its sovereignty from the communist regime that has ruled for the last six decades, there will hardly be any memories of the demands and responsibilities of democratic self-government. Like Indonesians, Cubans will have no experience in democratic government. 

President Sukarno reading his Presidential Decree of 5 July 1959

In his latest book, Upheaval, Turning Points for Nations in Crisis, Jared Diamond notes that: Fundamental to any functioning democracy are...recognition of the right to oppose government policies, tolerance of different points of views, acceptance of being outvoted, and government protection of those without political power.” These aptitudes, necessary for effective self-governance, are unfamiliar to Cubans today. 

In Indonesia, President Sukarno, and his successor President Suharto, considered the people to be undisciplined, ignorant, susceptible to dangerous ideas, and unready for democracy. In his autobiography Suharto wrote, “In Indonesian democracy there is no place for a Western-style opposition...Democracy must know discipline and responsibility, because without both those things democracy means only confusion.” 

Indeed, Indonesian democracy experienced a high and confused turnover of prime ministers and cabinets in its early days. And, in 1955, the elections were a stalemate when each of the four leading parties obtained a similar percentage of the votes. Indonesians could not find their way to compromise, and the country fell into political gridlock. In 1957, President Sukarno ended the gridlock by proclaiming martial law and instituting a regime he called “guided democracy.” 

Guided democracy is a government that, although formally democratic, functions as a de facto autocracy. A guided democracy is legitimized by elections, but such elections do not change the state’s policies. The elections may be technically free and fair, but they are cleverly controlled so that people can exercise their rights without being able to change public policy. 

The concept of guided democracy was described by journalist and political philosopher Walter Lippmann who sought to reconcile the tensions between liberty and democracy. Lippmann won two Pulitzer Prizes and has been called the most influential journalist of the 20th century. In his 1922 book Public Opinion, Lippmann discusses the cognitive limitations that we face in understanding our sociopolitical and cultural environments and how those limitations influence our behavior. He worried that consent is open to manipulation and can be manufactured. 

Sukarno’s guided democracy was an attempt to bring about political stability in Indonesia. He introduced, as a government concept, a blend of nationalism, religion, and communism. The idea was to appease the three main forces in Indonesian politics - the army, Islamic groups, and the communists. In 1957, with the support of the armed forces, Sukarno ended the Western- style electoral system, and instituted his guided democracy with a cabinet representing all major political parties. 

Similarly, to Indonesia’s experience, a future Cuba will likely have to blend nationalism, communism, and democracy into a functioning government. To borrow Jared Diamond’s metaphor, it would be a “mosaic” of disparate political ideas that must find a way to coexist because, “It’s neither possible nor desirable for individuals or nations to change completely, and to discard everything of their former identities.” 

Within a country, successive generations often hold drastically different political views as the result of different historical experiences. This is the case for three generations of Cubans in the island, and also for the parallel generations that have lived outside Cuba. They have all had different historical experiences that must coexist. 

There is also a relationship between the views of individuals and the characteristic of a nation, and national decisions flow from individual views. Thus, a new Cuban state must be a mosaic of the old and the new to keep the nation from falling apart if citizens do not feel joined by some unifying national belief. 

In Cuba, despotism will not necessarily be avoided, nor will good intentions necessarily result in the political success of democracy. This unfortunate reality may yield an autocratic Sukarno- style guided democracy. 

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Abrazos,

Lily & José

(click on the name to email Lily or Jose)
José Azel, Ph.D.

José Azel left Cuba in 1961 as a 13 year-old political exile in what has been dubbed Operation Pedro Pan - the largest unaccompanied child refugee movement in the history of the Western Hemisphere.  

He is currently dedicated to the in-depth analyses of Cuba's economic, social and political state, with a keen interest in post-Castro-Cuba strategies. Dr. Azel was a Senior Scholar at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies (ICCAS) at the University of Miami, Jose Azel has published extensively on Cuba related topics.

In 2012 and 2015, Dr. Azel testified in the U.S. Congress on U.S.-Cuba Policy, and U.S. National Security.  He is a frequent speaker and commentator on these and related topics on local, national and international media.  He holds undergraduate and masters degrees in business administration and a Ph.D. in International Affairs from the University of Miami.

José along with his wife Lily are avid skiers and adventure travelers.  In recent years they have climbed Grand Teton in Wyoming, trekked Mt. Kilimanjaro in Tanzania and Machu Pichu in Peru.  They have also hiked in Tibet and in the Himalayas to Mt. Everest Base Camp.

They cycled St. James Way (
El Camino de Santiago de Compostela) and cycled alongside the Danube from Germany to Hungary and throughout southern France.  They have scuba dived in the Bay Islands off the Honduran coast and in the Galapagos Islands. Most recently, they rafted for 17 days 220 miles in the Grand Canyon. 

Their adventurers are normally dedicated to raise funds for causes that are dear to them. 

Watch Joe & Lily summit Kilimanjaro.

Books by Dr. José Azel
José Azel’s writings are touched with the wisdom of a master, and the charm of an excellent communicator. Anyone who wishes to understand why countries do, or do not, progress will find in this book the best explanations. And, from these readings emerge numerous inferences: How and why do the good intentions of leftist collectivism lead countries to hell? Why is liberty not a sub product of prosperity, but rather one of its causes?

If it was in my power, this work would be required reading for all college and university students, and I would also recommend its reading to all politicians, journalists, and policymakers. With his writings Azel accomplishes what was achieved in France by Frédéric Bastiat, and in the United States by Henry Hazlitt: Azel brings together common sense with intelligent observation, and academic substance. Stupendous,

Carlos Alberto Montaner
                                                                   BUY NOW
Los escritos de José Azel están tocados por la sabiduría de un maestro y la amenidad de un excelente comunicador. Cualquiera que desee entender por qué los países progresan, o no, encontrará en este libro las mejores explicaciones. De estas lecturas surgen numerosas inferencias: ¿Cómo y por qué las buenas intenciones del colectivismo de izquierda llevan a los países al infierno? ¿Por qué la libertad no es un subproducto de la prosperidad, sino una de sus causas?

Si estuviera en mis manos, esta obra sería de obligada lectura de todos los estudiantes universitarios, pero además, le recomendaría su lectura a todos los políticos, periodistas y policy makers. Con sus escritos Azel logra lo que Frédéric Bastiat consiguiera en Francia y Henry Hazlitt en Estados Unidos: aunar el sentido común, la observación inteligente y la enjundia académica. Estupendo.

Carlos Alberto Montaner
                                                           Compre Aqui
"Liberty for beginners is much more than what the title promises. It is eighty themes touched with the wisdom of a master, and the charm of an excellent communicator. Anyone that wishes to understand why countries do, or do not progress, will find in this book the best explanations. Stupendous"

Carlos Alberto Montaner

"Libertad para novatos es mucho más de lo que promete el título. Son ochenta temas tocados con la sabiduría de un maestro y la amenidad de un excelente comunicador. Cualquier adulto que desee saber por qué progresan o se estancan los pueblos aquí encontrará las mejores explicaciones. Estupendo."

Carlos Alberto Montaner

Compre Aqui

In Reflections on FreedomJosé Azel brings together a collection of his columns published in prestigious newspapers.  Each article reveals his heartfelt and personal awareness of the importance of freedom in our lives.  They are his reflections after nearly sixty years of living and learning as a Cuban outside Cuba. In what has become his stylistic trademark, Professor Azel brilliantly introduces complex topics in brief journalistic articles.
En Reflexiones sobre la libertad José Azel reúne una colección de sus columnas publicadas en prestigiosos periódicos. Cada artículo revela su percepción sincera y personal de la importancia de la libertad en nuestras vidas. Son sus reflexiones después de casi sesenta años viviendo y aprendiendo como cubano fuera de Cuba.  En lo que ha resultado ser característica distintiva de sus artículos, el Profesor Azel introduce con brillantez complejos temas en  breves artículos de carácter periodístico.
Mañana in Cuba is a comprehensive analysis of contemporary Cuba with an incisive perspective of the Cuban frame of mind and its relevancy for Cuba's future.
Pedazos y Vacíos is a collection of poems written in by Dr. Azel in his youth. Poems are in Spanish.
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