Madman Theory .2

the AZEL PERSPECTIVE Commentary on Cuba's Future, U.S. Foreign Policy & Individual Freedoms - Issue 463 B   José Azel's latest books "On Freedom" and "Sobre La Libertad" are now available on Amazon.  Madman Theory .2 (Previously published) Share  Tweet  Forward  Machiavellianism is a term often used to characterize unscrupulous politicians of the sort Niccolo Machiavelli described in “The Prince.” But, Machiavelli’s writings were also inspirational to the political philosophy of the Enlightenment, and he is often characterized as the father of modern political science. In 1517, he argued that sometimes it is “a very wise thing to simulate madness.” Machiavelli’s point was that, to appear a little crazy may be a useful tool to persuade an adversary to stand down.  Perhaps it was Machiavelli who inspired President Richard Nixon to develop his “Madman Theory.” In 1969, about eight months into his Presidency, Nixon became frustrated with the hostility and obstinacy of the North Vietnamese leadership. During the campaign, he had promised to end the Vietnam War and wanted to negotiate an exit from Vietnam, but the North Vietnamese were unyielding in their terms.  Nixon wanted the Soviet Union to pressure North Vietnam, and he believed that Soviet Leader Leonid Brezhnev would do so only if he thought the United States was getting ready to do something crazy. (Consider here the parallels to the situation faced by President Trump in dealing with North Korea).  Nixon sought to make the Soviet, and North Vietnamese leaders think that he was irrational and volatile. The President did not want either to feel confident that they could predict how he would act. Nixon wanted his adversaries guessing as to his temperament and decision making. He wanted the North Vietnamese leadership, with whom he was negotiating, to be concerned with how he would react if provoked.  To this end, he instructed his Chief of Staff, H.R. Haldeman:  “I call it the Madman Theory, Bob. I want the North Vietnamese to believe I’ve reached a point where I might do anything to stop the war. We’ll just slip the word to them that, ‘for God’s sake, you know Nixon is obsessed with communism. We can’t restrain him when he’s angry - and he has his hand on the nuclear button’ and Ho Chi Minh himself will be in Paris in two days begging for peace.”  The Nixon Administration did more than “just slip the word.” In October 1969, the Administration signaled that the madman was getting ready for action. Nixon ordered a full global war readiness alert, and for three consecutive days, the United States flew bombers armed with thermonuclear weapons near the Soviet borders.  According to Melvin Laird, Nixon’s Secretary of Defense, the idea was to make the Soviets think “you could never put your finger on what he [Nixon] might do next.” Henry Kissinger, as National Security Advisor, played his part by portraying the U.S. incursion into Cambodia as symptomatic of Nixon’s presumed instability.  Ultimately, and end to the Vietnam War was negotiated. The terms of that agreement are a separate issue. The point is that, making adversaries think that pushing too far may bring unpredictable and ominous consequences has its merits.  For the past year, President Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un have both been playing the madman game exchanging military threats and insults. I call it Madman Theory version two (.2) President Trump mocked Kim as “Little Rocket Man” and vowed to “totally destroy” North Korea. Kim called Trump a “dotard” and a “lunatic” and threatened to fire nuclear bombs at the U.S.  And yet, it has now been announced that Kim Jong Un has invited President Trump to meet for negotiations over its nuclear program, and the President has agreed to meet with the North Korean dictator. Kim has also pledged to stop nuclear and missile testing as demanded by the United States. It is impossible to underestimate this development; there have never been face- to-face negotiations, or even a phone call, between the sitting leaders of North Korea and the United States.  Whatever one may think of President Trump’s unorthodox caustic style, it seems clear that foreign policy tools, implemented under the Madman Theory, brought Kim Jong Un to the negotiating table. President Trump has a reputation for making deals, let’s hope he does not settle for anything less than a verifiably denuclearized Korean Peninsula.    Please let us know if you  this article. We welcome your feedback. Abrazos,  Lily & José  (click on the name to email Lily or Jose) José Azel, Ph.D. José Azel left Cuba in 1961 as a 13 year-old political exile in what has been dubbed Operation Pedro Pan - the largest unaccompanied child refugee movement in the history of the Western Hemisphere.   He is currently dedicated to the in-depth analyses of Cuba's economic, social and political state, with a keen interest in post-Castro-Cuba strategies. Dr. Azel was a Senior Scholar at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies (ICCAS) at the University of Miami, Jose Azel has published extensively on Cuba related topics. In 2012 and 2015, Dr. Azel testified in the U.S. Congress on U.S.-Cuba Policy, and U.S. National Security.  He is a frequent speaker and commentator on these and related topics on local, national and international media.  He holds undergraduate and masters degrees in business administration and a Ph.D. in International Affairs from the University of Miami. José along with his wife Lily are avid skiers and adventure travelers.  In recent years they have climbed Grand Teton in Wyoming, trekked Mt. Kilimanjaro in Tanzania and Machu Pichu in Peru.  They have also hiked in Tibet and in the Himalayas to Mt. Everest Base Camp. They cycled St. James Way (El Camino de Santiago de Compostela) and cycled alongside the Danube from Germany to Hungary and throughout southern France.  They have scuba dived in the Bay Islands off the Honduran coast and in the Galapagos Islands. Most recently, they rafted for 17 days 220 miles in the Grand Canyon.  Their adventurers are normally dedicated to raise funds for causes that are dear to them.    Watch Joe & Lily summit Kilimanjaro. Books by Dr. José Azel   José Azel’s writings are touched with the wisdom of a master, and the charm of an excellent communicator. Anyone who wishes to understand why countries do, or do not, progress will find in this book the best explanations. And, from these readings emerge numerous inferences: How and why do the good intentions of leftist collectivism lead countries to hell? Why is liberty not a sub product of prosperity, but rather one of its causes? If it was in my power, this work would be required reading for all college and university students, and I would also recommend its reading to all politicians, journalists, and policymakers. With his writings Azel accomplishes what was achieved in France by Frédéric Bastiat, and in the United States by Henry Hazlitt: Azel brings together common sense with intelligent observation, and academic substance. Stupendous, Carlos Alberto Montaner                                                                    BUY NOW   Los escritos de José Azel están tocados por la sabiduría de un maestro y la amenidad de un excelente comunicador. Cualquiera que desee entender por qué los países progresan, o no, encontrará en este libro las mejores explicaciones. De estas lecturas surgen numerosas inferencias: ¿Cómo y por qué las buenas intenciones del colectivismo de izquierda llevan a los países al infierno? ¿Por qué la libertad no es un subproducto de la prosperidad, sino una de sus causas? Si estuviera en mis manos, esta obra sería de obligada lectura de todos los estudiantes universitarios, pero además, le recomendaría su lectura a todos los políticos, periodistas y policy makers. Con sus escritos Azel logra lo que Frédéric Bastiat consiguiera en Francia y Henry Hazlitt en Estados Unidos: aunar el sentido común, la observación inteligente y la enjundia académica. Estupendo. Carlos Alberto Montaner                                                            Compre Aqui   "Liberty for beginners is much more than what the title promises. It is eighty themes touched with the wisdom of a master, and the charm of an excellent communicator. Anyone that wishes to understand why countries do, or do not progress, will find in this book the best explanations. Stupendous" Carlos Alberto Montaner Buy Now   "Libertad para novatos es mucho más de lo que promete el título. Son ochenta temas tocados con la sabiduría de un maestro y la amenidad de un excelente comunicador. Cualquier adulto que desee saber por qué progresan o se estancan los pueblos aquí encontrará las mejores explicaciones. Estupendo." Carlos Alberto Montaner Compre Aqui   In Reflections on Freedom, José Azel brings together a collection of his columns published in prestigious newspapers.  Each article reveals his heartfelt and personal awareness of the importance of freedom in our lives.  They are his reflections after nearly sixty years of living and learning as a Cuban outside Cuba. In what has become his stylistic trademark, Professor Azel brilliantly introduces complex topics in brief journalistic articles. Buy Now   En Reflexiones sobre la libertad José Azel reúne una colección de sus columnas publicadas en prestigiosos periódicos. Cada artículo revela su percepción sincera y personal de la importancia de la libertad en nuestras vidas. Son sus reflexiones después de casi sesenta años viviendo y aprendiendo como cubano fuera de Cuba.  En lo que ha resultado ser característica distintiva de sus artículos, el Profesor Azel introduce con brillantez complejos temas en  breves artículos de carácter periodístico. Compre Aqui Mañana in Cuba is a comprehensive analysis of contemporary Cuba with an incisive perspective of the Cuban frame of mind and its relevancy for Cuba's future. Buy now Pedazos y Vacíos is a collection of poems written in by Dr. Azel in his youth. Poems are in Spanish. Buy now To friend, follow or email author click on the icons below: Click here to: View this email in your browser Access past issues Access automated translations Facilitate sharing Print from your browser Copyright © 2022 Azel & Associates, All rights reserved. If you are receiving this email it is because we met you at some point on an adventure. Our mailing address is: Azel & Associates 440 Sawgrass Parkway, Suite 106 Sunrise, FL 33325 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list