Let’s Dare to Think for Ourselves

the AZEL PERSPECTIVE Commentary on Cuba's Future, U.S. Foreign Policy & Individual Freedoms - Issue 159

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This is not exactly a media bashing column. Mostly, I seek to explain, with help from the research of renowned cognitive psychologist Dr. Steven Pinker, how our judgements become negatively biased by the frequency and topic selection of news coverage. Eeyore Often our world outlook is reminiscent of Eeyore, that pessimistic, gloomy, depressed, anhedonic, stuffed donkey who is a friend of Winne-the-Pooh. We may feel this way because, our daily news intake is mostly stories about terrorism, crime, drug abuse, the dysfunction of our political system, and all types of domestic and international crises. One reason for this predominance of reported bad news is the editorial dictum of “If it bleeds it leads” which prioritizes spectacular stories that pray on our anxieties.  Also, as Dr. Pinker points out, news coverage is about things that happen, and whereas bad things tend to happen quickly, good things unfold over time.  Good news is not in sync with the daily news cycle. Norwegian sociologist Johan Galtung helped develop the concept of “news values” to explain how editors and journalists decide which piece of information is news, and which is not. He notes that “If a newspaper came out every fifty years, it would not report half a century of gossip and political scandals.  It would report momentous global changes such as the increase in life expectancy.” This hierarchy and frequency of bad news reporting shapes our feelings and judgements. The work of psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman offers an explanation.  Prior to their work, the predominant view was that we made judgements by thinking rationally. But Tversky and Kahneman showed that instead of reason, we use a mental shortcut that relies on examples that immediately come to mind. They called this cognitive bias “Available Heuristic.” Available Heuristic means that our opinions rely heavily on the latest news. We form judgements, not on a deliberate reasoned manner, but on the frequency an event comes to mind. Rather that reasoning, we judge based on what comes to mind; and what comes to mind is a function of media coverage. In experiments on Available Heuristics, subjects were asked, “If a random word is taken from an English text, is it more likely that the word starts with a K, or that K is the third letter?” It turns out that we quickly think of words that begin with the letter K (kitchen, keep). And we conclude that words beginning with K are more likely than words with K in the third position (ask, bake).  We are wrong; a typical text contains twice as many words that have K as the third letter than K as the first letter. Car crashes kill far more people than plane crashes. Yet, many people fear flying, and few fear driving. Plane accidents always make the news, but car accidents seldom do. This is the sort of distortion in our reasoning produced by the negatively biased topic selection of news coverage. On the basis of Available Heuristics we put aside thinking, and judge on topics based on the reported frequency of their occurrence. Bad news is what first comes to mind, thus we think that the world is falling apart. It is not. In his work, Steven Pinker has shown statistically that humanity has made spectacular progress in every measure of human well-being. Today, we live longer, the world is healthier, better fed, wealthier, safer, more peaceful, freer, more literate, more knowledgeable, etc. But you would not know this by the relentless negativity of the news coverage. Smallpox, the infectious disease that killed over 300 million people in the 20th century, has now been eradicated. Polio is almost there with just 37 cases reported worldwide in 2016. Where are the headlines? The media may argue that it is compelled to focus on the negative to fulfill its role as watchdog. Perhaps, but to avoid media induced pessimism, we must take up Immanuel Kant’s challenge of Sapere aude; that is, we must undertake a program of intellectual self-liberation. We must dare to think for ourselves. Please let us know if you  this article. We welcome your feedback. Abrazos,  Lily & José  (click on the name to email Lily or Jose) José Azel, Ph.D. José Azel left Cuba in 1961 as a 13 year-old political exile in what has been dubbed Operation Pedro Pan - the largest unaccompanied child refugee movement in the history of the Western Hemisphere. He is currently dedicated to the in-depth analyses of Cuba's economic, social and political state, with a keen interest in post-Castro-Cuba strategies. Formerly, a Senior Scholar at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies (ICCAS) at the University of Miami, Jose Azel has published extensively on Cuba related topics. In 2012 and 2015, Dr. Azel testified in the U.S. Congress on U.S.-Cuba Policy, and U.S. National Security.  He is a frequent speaker and commentator on these and related topics on local, national and international media.  He holds undergraduate and masters degrees in business administration and a Ph.D. in International Affairs from the University of Miami. José along with his wife Lily are avid skiers and adventure travelers.  In recent years they have climbed Grand Teton in Wyoming, trekked Mt. Kilimanjaro in Tanzania and Machu Pichu in Peru.  They have also hiked in Tibet and in the Himalayas to Mt. Everest Base Camp. They cycled St. James Way (El Camino de Santiago de Compostela) and cycled alongside the Danube from Germany to Hungary. They have scuba dived in the Bay Islands off the Honduran coast and in the Galapagos Islands. Their adventurers are normally dedicated to raise funds for causes that are dear to them.  Watch Joe & Lily summit Kilimanjaro. Books by Dr. José Azel "Liberty for beginners is much more than what the title promises. It is eighty themes touched with the wisdom of a master, and the charm of an excellent communicator. Anyone that wishes to understand why countries do, or do not progress, will find in this book the best explanations. If it was in my power, this work would be required reading for all college and university students, and I would recommend its reading to politicians, journalists, and policymakers. With this book Azel accomplishes what was achieved in France by Frédéric Bastiat, and in the United States by Henry Hazlitt: brings together common sense with intelligent observation, and academic substance. Stupendous" Carlos Alberto Montaner Buy Now "Libertad para novatos es mucho más de lo que promete el título. Son ochenta temas tocados con la sabiduría de un maestro y la amenidad de un excelente comunicador. Cualquier adulto que desee saber por qué progresan o se estancan los pueblos aquí encontrará las mejores explicaciones. Si estuviera en mis manos, esta obra sería lectura obligatoria de todos los estudiantes, tanto de bachillerato como universitarios, pero, además, se la recomendaría a todos los políticos y periodistas, a todos los policy makers. Azel logra con este libro lo que Frédéric Bastiat consiguiera en Francia y Henry Hazlitt en Estados Unidos: aunar el sentido común, la observación inteligente y la enjundia académica. Estupendo." Carlos Alberto Montaner Compre Aqui In Reflections on Freedom, José Azel brings together a collection of his columns published in prestigious newspapers.  Each article reveals his heartfelt and personal awareness of the importance of freedom in our lives.  They are his reflections after nearly sixty years of living and learning as a Cuban outside Cuba. In what has become his stylistic trademark, Professor Azel brilliantly introduces complex topics in brief journalistic articles. Buy Now En Reflexiones sobre la libertad José Azel reúne una colección de sus columnas publicadas en prestigiosos periódicos. Cada artículo revela su percepción sincera y personal de la importancia de la libertad en nuestras vidas. Son sus reflexiones después de casi sesenta años viviendo y aprendiendo como cubano fuera de Cuba.  En lo que ha resultado ser característica distintiva de sus artículos, el Profesor Azel introduce con brillantez complejos temas en  breves artículos de carácter periodístico. Compre Aqui Mañana in Cuba is a comprehensive analysis of contemporary Cuba with an incisive perspective of the Cuban frame of mind and its relevancy for Cuba's future. Buy now Pedazos y Vacíos is a collection of poems written in by Dr. Azel in his youth. Poems are in Spanish. Buy now

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