LET'S FIGHT BACK

LET'S FIGHT BACK
GOD BLESS AMERICA

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FROM THE RELIGION OF PEACE

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Cuba After the Castro's

the AZEL

PERSPECTIVE

Commentary on Cuba's Future, U.S. Foreign Policy & Individual Freedoms - Issue 76
 

Cuba After the Castros

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The succession from Fidel to Raul Castro, programmed since the early days of the revolution, was efficient and effective. But, the hallucination in which Raul Castro intervenes forcefully to end the communist era and inaugurates a new democratic and market oriented Cuba is not how the story ends.
General Raul Castro & Miguel Diaz-Canel
Given General Castro’s age, there will be another succession in the near future. Raul Castro’s perfunctory successor in the Communist Party, Jose Ramon Machado Ventura is nearly 90 years old and not obligatorily seen as the next Cuban leader. Miguel Diaz-Canel, the younger First Vice President of the Council of State, is not likely to be much more than a “civilian” figurehead for the Generals to present to the international community.

The appointment of Miguel Diaz-Canel, an under 60 years-old party apparatchik factotum, as First Vice President of the Council of State places him in line to succeed Raul Castro in that state body. This, however, is not equivalent to being number two in the regime as the international media seems to have concluded.
 
Article five of the Cuban constitution makes it clear that the Communist Party is “the superior leading force of the society and the State.” The fifteen-member Politburo of the Communist Party remains headed by Raul Castro as First Secretary, and by Machado Ventura as Second Secretary.
 
It is not often understood that Raul Castro leads Cuba not because he is president of the Council of State, but because he is First Secretary of the Communist Party and Fidel’s brother.  Under the Cuban governing succession scheme the military dominated Politburo would recommend Cuba’s next leader.

The critical question is not what economic reforms General Castro may introduce, but rather what follows him. The younger Castro brother was in charge of the armed forces for nearly fifty years and has appointed his military officers and military family members to positions in government and industry. The “after Raul” succession will include his loyalists in the military and the Communist Party. Possible succession scenarios include a typical military dictatorship, or some “first among equals” approach. Yet, there is a more ominous plot in the making.

The role of the Cuban military in the economy is extensive and pervasive with the military managerial elite controlling over seventy percent of the economy. The breadth and depth of this military control of the country’s key economic sectors is astonishing. GAESA, the commercial holding company for the Cuban Defense Ministry, is involved in all key sectors of the economy, and enterprises with innocuous sounding names such as Gaviota, S.A. are all part of the vast economic involvement of Cuba’s Armed Forces (FAR).

The succession plot thickens when we consider that constitutionally, the President of the Council of State is also the Supreme Chief of the Revolutionary Armed Forces. Cuban history offers no tradition of military subordination to civilian rule. With Raul Castro gone, it is difficult to envision old comandantes like Ramiro Valdes and three star generals of the Politburo obediently offering military allegiance and saluting in subordination a civilian bureaucrat like Diaz-Canel. This comportment of unchallenged civilian command of the armed forces is not in the Cuban memes (cultural genes).
 
When thinking about change in Cuba, it is essential to keep in mind that Cuba’s history for the past half century is that of the Castro brothers and their ideas. Raul Castro’s inner circle is not made up of closet democrats waiting for an opportune moment to put into practice their long-suppressed Jeffersonian ideals. Their governing modality is ontologically inseparable from their ideology. In a symbiotic relationship authoritarianism engenders a corrupt oligarchy and that oligarchy profits from the continuation of corrupt authoritarianism.

General Castro, as a matter of survival not ideology, will introduce some tentative economic reforms, while simultaneously continuing to expand the metamorphosis of his officers into businessmen. Some will view this as a positive development, where warriors exchange their weapons for calculators. But we need to look for what happens next, when the Raul era comes to an end leaving FAR officers in political control as well as in control of all key sectors of the economy.

In a system where enterprises are state owned and managed, the military officers turned business executives enjoy the privileges of an elite ruling class. Yet, these benefits are miniscule when compared with the opportunities to gain significant affluence via a position of ownership in the enterprises under their control. It will not take long for the military elite to realize that managing government owned enterprises, offers only limited benefits - owning the enterprises is a far more rewarding and lucrative option.

Once the Castro brothers are no longer in the picture the military oligarchy will be highly motivated to lead the way towards a fabricated privatization of the economy. Specifically, the military officers will have every incentive to champion a manipulated privatization of the industries under their managerial control in order to convert their positions into wealth.

This, however, requires support from the international investment community and for that, the Cuban leadership must appear willing to make changes in the political realm; enter the Diaz-Canel designation. Surely, he is a capable, obedient, and disciplined party loyalist and fully aware of the dire fate of those civilians who preceded him in prominent positions when their loyalty was questioned e.g., Aldana, Lage, Robaina, Perez Roque. 
 
Alas, not unlike the kleptocratic privatizations in Russia, this illegitimate and corrupt privatization process will transform the military elite into instant capitalist millionaires as the new Cuban “captains of industry.”
 
In the Cuban governing madhouse, General Castro is seeking regime continuity presenting a façade of political lawfulness that will enable his generals and family to monetize their loyalty. The military will oversee a hegemonic party system offering a patina of political legitimacy for the benefit of the international community.

The politically exhausted Cuban population may not view these ownership changes as particularly undesirable or nefarious. They may even mistakenly view them as a positive transition towards free markets and prosperity. The international community will also acclaim the mutated generals as agents of change bringing market reforms to Cuba, and, in the United States, the change in U.S.-Cuba policy introduced by President Obama will be declared a success.

In this disheartening scenario Cuban communism will have come to an end, leaving the generals and their heirs- devoid of a democratic culture- as the nouveau riche.

It is often argued that the introduction of economic reforms, even without political reforms, will lead sequentially and inexorably to democracy. Not so, without profound political reforms, putative economic changes conducted by a corrupt military will lead only to a transfer of wealth from the state to the ruling military/party elite. They are not a path to democracy for that tragic Island.

It is not important who fills the civilian poster face roles. After all, Roman Emperor Caligula, in his insanity or perversion, sought to make his favorite horse into a Roman Consul to show that a horse could perform a Senator’s duties.

Please let us know if you Like Issue 76 - Cuba After the Castros on Facebook this article.
We welcome your feedback.
Abrazos,
 
Lily & José
 
(click on the name to email Lily or Jose)
This article was originally published in English in the PanAm Post and in Spanish in El Nuevo Herald.

 
José Azel, Ph.D.
José Azel left Cuba in 1961 as a 13 year-old political exile in what has been dubbed Operation Pedro Pan - the largest unaccompanied child refugee movement in the history of the Western Hemisphere.  

He is currently dedicated to the in-depth analyses of Cuba's economic, social and political state, with a keen interest in post-Castro-Cuba strategies as a Senior Scholar at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies (ICCAS) at the University of Miami and has published extensively on Cuba related topics.

In 2012 and 2015, Dr. Azel testified in the U.S. Congress on U.S.-Cuba Policy, and U.S. National Security.  He is a frequent speaker and commentator on these and related topics on local, national and international media.  He holds undergraduate and masters degrees in business administration and a Ph.D. in International Affairs from the University of Miami.

José along with his wife Lily are avid skiers and adventure travelers.  In recent years they have climbed Grand Teton in Wyoming, trekked Mt. Kilimanjaro in Tanzania and Machu Pichu in Peru.  They have also hiked in Tibet and in the Himalayas to Mt. Everest Base Camp.

They cycled St. James Way (
El Camino de Santiago de Compostela) and cycled alongside the Danube from Germany to Hungary. They have scuba dived in the Bay Islands off the Honduran coast. 

Their adventurers are normally dedicated to raise funds for causes that are dear to them. 
Watch Joe & Lily summit Kilimanjaro.

Books by Dr. José Azel
In Reflections on FreedomJosé Azel brings together a collection of his columns published in prestigious newspapers.  Each article reveals his heartfelt and personal awareness of the importance of freedom in our lives.  They are his reflections after nearly sixty years of living and learning as a Cuban outside Cuba. In what has become his stylistic trademark, Professor Azel brilliantly introduces complex topics in brief journalistic articles.
Buy Now
En Reflexiones sobre la libertad José Azel reúne una colección de sus columnas publicadas en prestigiosos periódicos. Cada artículo revela su percepción sincera y personal de la importancia de la libertad en nuestras vidas. Son sus reflexiones después de casi sesenta años viviendo y aprendiendo como cubano fuera de Cuba.  En lo que ha resultado ser característica distintiva de sus artículos, el Profesor Azel introduce con brillantez complejos temas en  breves artículos de carácter periodístico.
Compre Aqui
Mañana in Cuba is a comprehensive analysis of contemporary Cuba with an incisive perspective of the Cuban frame of mind and its relevancy for Cuba's future.
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Pedazos y Vacíos is a collection of poems written in by Dr. Azel in his youth. Poems are in Spanish.
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Shalom Cuba- Issue 8


.


Issue 8 | May, 2017


 
A publication of the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies (ICCAS)

NEWS
Cuban activists denounce new methods of repression 
By Nora Gamez Torres 
While the new U.S. president's policies on Cuba remain uncertain, the government in Havana appears to be more nervous about its domestic opposition than usual... 
Read story »
linebreak
Cuban activist expelled from university 
By Christian Solidarity Worldwide 
Felix Yuniel Llerena López, a 20 year-old religious freedom defender, has been expelled from the Enrique José Varona Pedagogical University in Havana, following an advocacy visit to the United States...
Read story »
linebreak
EU-Cuba High-level discussion on human rights in Brussels 

The EU underlined the importance of complying with international human rights electoral standards, including free access to media and to information, freedoms of expression, association and assembly so that voices from different parts of the political spectrum can be heard and participate...
Read story »
linebreak
SPOTLIGHT
What Life Is Like for Jews in Cuba 
By Dovid Margolin 
Throughout its lifespan as a Communist nation, the Soviet Union held captive one of the largest Jewish populations on earth. By contrast, 94 percent of Cuba’s Jewish community left soon after Castro’s revolution, escaping to the freedom of the United States or Israel... 
Read story »
linebreak
Number of Political Prisoners in Cuba Doubles as Castro Dictatorship Ramps Up Repression 
By Karina Martin 
The number of political prisoners in Cuba has doubled since last year, and shows no sign of declining. The Cuban Commission for Human Rights and National Reconciliation released a report that revealed the island’s government has increased its number of political prisoners to twice of what it had the previous year...
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linebreak
Havana lashes out against Trump’s May 20 message to the Cuban people 
By Nora Gamez Torres 
vana has reacted strongly to a statement issued by President Donald Trump to the Cuban people over the weekend to mark the 115th anniversary of the birth of the Republic of Cuba. A statement read on Cuban state television on Saturday described Trump’s message as “controversial” and “ridiculous”...
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Share your thoughts on Shalom Cuba with us at iccas@miami.edu  
Editor, Web and Digital, Shalom Cuba 
Jennifer Hernandez
Published by the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies (ICCAS) Copyright © 2017 
University of Miami