appraisers of the past performance of leaders. Voting retrospectively only requires voters to monitor their own and their fellow citizens’ well-being. That is, voters need not be informed or engaged as demanded by the romantic theory of democracy. Voters identify good or bad government performance according to how it has impacted their lives.
Voting retrospectively does not require the citizenry to know the precise polices of an administration or party. To ascertain performance, voters need only to assess how it has changed their own welfare or that of the nation. Retrospective voting expresses approval or disapproval for past performance and, as such, is a powerful instrument of electoral accountability.
For example, voters’ assessments of economic conditions are very significant in determining election outcomes. Research shows that voters tend to reward incumbents for good economic times and punish them for bad times. Consequently, as an election rationale, retrospective voting functions to improve the economic competency of political leaders by retaining those that are competent economic managers and replacing those that are not. Retrospective voting induces leaders to strive for good economic outcomes to retain their jobs.
Scholars also point out that retrospective voting “lays no policy constrains on the governing administration; rather, the government is free to innovate, knowing that it will be judged on the results of its actions rather than their specifics.” In other words, in this rearview mirror thesis, election outcomes do not depend on ideas or political ideology, but rather on our approval or disapproval of the actual performance of incumbent political leaders or parties. In practice, democratic voting does not back up the conventional romantic theory of democracy.
While a bit cynic, the logic of retrospective voting appears sound. Most voters are busy with their lives and not able to devote the time required to understand the complexities of policy decisions. Instead, at election time, voters are content with asking whether things are going well or badly lately. In essence, and perhaps inelegantly, it is not political ideology but a look at the rearview mirror that best explains why we vote as we do.
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