Americans Care Little About U.S.-Cuba Relations

CUBA BRIEF

Information and Analysis from the
Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies
University of Miami

           

                                                                                                                                              Pedro Roig*

The recent visit to Cuba by Governor Cuomo of N.Y. highlights the vision that the island may be an economic bonanza for U.S. investors. Not so soon. First, the U.S. Congress must end the U.S. embargo, not a likely event in the short term. Second, the Cuban economy is controlled by the military. They run the tourist industry, the nickel industry in partnership with Sherritt (Canada) and the rum industry in partnership with Pernod Ricard (France). American companies are primarily interested in selling products to Cuba. Yet lack of resources will require credit and bank loans. Given Cuba’s lousy record in paying its debt, U.S. taxpayers or shareholders of U.S. companies will have to assume the Cuban debt if the Cuban military does not pay. Third, investing in Cuba may be even a longer proposition. The issue of the expropriations of American and Cuban properties is not an easy problem. In sum, changes in Cuba will be slow and difficult and U.S.-Cuba relations not the picnic most expect.

In the massive polling frenzy on the U.S. rapprochement with Cuba’s military, there was an interesting national poll conducted by the Associated Press and the Public Affairs & Corporate Communications on January 29 – February 2, 2015 that clearly shows the small interest and insignificancy of the new U.S.-Cuba policy among American voters. 

When asked “How closely have you been following news about the U.S. re-establishing ties with the government of Cuba?” the overwhelming response was: 

Not close at all – 25% Not too close    – 25% Somewhat close – 34% 84% total

On the other hand, an abysmal 13% stated that they followed the news about U.S.-Cuba:

Extremely close – 5%         Very close – 8%                             13% (total)

The obvious conclusion is that President Obama’s unilateral concessions to General Castro are (outside of South Florida) a negligible issue in the view of the majority of American voters.

By this minimal interest of likely voters on the President’s new Cuba policy toward Cuba we could infer that most elected officials in the U.S. Congress are not under any kind of pressure in their districts to lift the Cuban embargo.

Given that President Obama does not have the legal authority to further weaken the embargo and that his unconditional concessions were met with a list of onerous demands by General Castro (return of Guantanamo, payment for “damages” of the embargo, removal from terrorist list, etc.), the U.S. Congress is unlikely to go along with the President’s request to eliminate economic sanctions. Public opinion is not demanding it, and General Castro’s anti-American behavior and alliances with Russia, Venezuela, and Iran does not deserve it.

In the U.S. Congress, the economic sanctions are strictly codified by law to guarantee a transition from totalitarianism to freedom in Cuba. It concretely defines the purpose of the law: Liberty for Cuba. Nothing is more substantive. Human Rights are a fundamental part of U.S. policy and Cuba’s freedom is not negotiable.

Note: to access “A survey of American general population (ages 18+)” poll visit: http://ap-gfkpoll.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/AP-GFK_Poll_January_2015_Topline_Cuba.pdf

*Pedro Roig: a historian and lawyer, is a senior scholar at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies (ICCAS) at the University of Miami. Roig was the director of the InterAmerican Academy and headed up the Office for Cuba Broadcasts (OCB), which runs Radio and Television Martí (2003-2010). He is also the author of numerous books including Martí: la lucha de los cubanos por la libertad and Death of a Dream: A History of Cuba. Roig is a veteran of Brigade 2506.