Cruz and Kasich are reaching out to delegates in the hopes of undermining one of the billionaire’s big early victories.
(Politico) – Donald Trump triumphed in South Carolina’s primary last month. Now, the state could be ground zero for his undoing.
Ted Cruz and John Kasich are aggressively mobilizing allies to recruit and elect their own South Carolina loyalists to the national Republican convention — scheduled for late July in Cleveland.
All 50 of South Carolina’s delegates are duty-bound to support Trump on a first vote, but interviews with two dozen prospective delegates and party insiders — including several Trump backers — reveal a widespread belief that Cruz and Kasich will succeed in wresting the delegation away from Trump if the nomination fight heads to a second ballot. If Trump is unable to claim the nomination immediately, South Carolina could help tip the scales away from the New York billionaire.
“I could never vote for Donald Trump, ever,” said Vic Dabney of Kershaw County, S.C., a Cruz supporter who said he is pursuing a run for delegate. “He shares none of my values.”
Working against Trump is the fact that South Carolina’s potential delegates may only be drawn from the 925 party insiders who attended the state’s GOP convention in 2015. It’s a pool of party veterans who helped reelect the state’s GOP chairman Matt Moore — who has been vocally critical of Trump — with 83 percent support last year.
Some of the insiders who staffed that reelection fight are now working to help Kasich recruit delegates, even though the Ohio governor was trounced in the South Carolina primary, winning just 7 percent of the vote and finishing fifth among six candidates.
But it’s Cruz who enjoys support from much of the conservative activist class and seems best positioned to reap the support of double-agent delegates. Many prospective delegates contacted by POLITICO voiced support for Cruz and indicated they’d strongly consider voting for him on a second ballot.
“One of the things I’ve been impressed about the Cruz campaign is they have been very organized, they have been very successful with the grassroots of the base,” said State Rep. Garry Smith, who plans to run for delegate and is a Cruz supporter. He said he’s had conversations with the Cruz campaign but declined to say whether they encouraged him to recruit other pro-Cruz delegates.
“Ted Cruz is a more natural fit with South Carolina’s insider party establishment, at least in this context,” said a GOP insider who will attend the state’s convention in May. “Cruz obviously underperformed in the primary. His supporters here have been involved for a very long time and that involvement pays off at state and local conventions.”
Twenty-one of South Carolina’s national delegates will be elected in county and Congressional district conventions over the next few weeks. Another 26 will get selected at the state’s convention in May. Three are automatic delegates: the state’s two Republican National Committee members and Moore, the GOP chairman.
“The state party will run a fair, honest and transparent delegate selection,” Moore said in an interview. “Usually national delegates are almost symbolic. This time they carry a real responsibility. This is the most interest we’ve seen in the national delegate process. We’re giving all the campaigns equal access to data.”
That data set consists of the names and contact information of the 925 potential delegates, enabling each campaign to recruit a pool of supporters to run.
Many Cruz backers, however, say they have yet to hear from the campaign but are running for delegate of their own volition.
Duffy Lewis, who’s planning to run for one of three delegate slots in the state’s First Congressional District, said she believes Cruz deserves a vote from her district because Charleston County voted strongly for Marco Rubio. “Since Rubio is out of the race, you can argue that Cruz would get a big chunk of Rubio’s votes,” she said. “I’m convinced Ted Cruz would’ve taken Charleston County and many other districts. I just know my county.”
Kasich ally Charles Steinart said he’s hopeful to win an at-large delegate slot at the state convention in May. And he said he’d proudly back Kasich on every ballot after the first.
“If it’s not a first-ballot convention, you can rest assured there are deals that will be made,” Steinart said. “When we have a political system where the two guys with the most votes are arguing about their wives, we have terror running rampant in Europe and the president goes to a baseball game and takes a picture in front of Che Guevara — and they argue about wives — what’s wrong with that picture? The answer is everything.”
But other Kasich allies weren’t as resolute. Gary Clary, a state representative, said he is contemplating a run for delegate but isn’t certain he’ll back Kasich on a second ballot.
“I’m going to keep my options open and my powder dry,” he said. “We’re in such a state of flux right now. It’s very – still very early and premature at this point.”
Likewise, state Rep. Chip Limehouse — who said he’s considering a delegate bid and has been encouraged by Kasich allies to do so — said he wouldn’t commit yet to backing the Ohio governor on a second ballot because he’s not even sure if he’s running yet.
“The thought process behind me running is I want to be involved in the process,” he said.
Several prospective delegates interviewed said that if Trump was close to landing the 1,237 delegates he needed on the first ballot, with no other candidates close to his total, they would continue to back him in a second round, even if he had yet to clinch the nomination. But if he shows signs of weakness as a nominee, especially if Cruz inches closer to him in the delegate count, they’d consider abandoning Trump.
“If Trump is being shown not to be the strongest candidate, if it’s a legitimate ballot, not something engineered in a back room somewhere, then I would definitely go with Cruz,” said Bruce Miller of Lancaster County, S.C., who said he is “definitely a Trump supporter.” “If I feel like if it’s a legitimate thing, then I would go for Cruz because it’s showing Trump doesn’t have the support necessary. Why continue to beat a dead horse?”
State Rep. Todd Atwater, who was active on Marco Rubio’s behalf during the primary and is strongly considering running for delegate to the RNC, noted that “the people are speaking, and speaking loudly through Trump, saying they’re unhappy. I’m not going to defy that voice.”
But he, too, said he would reassess backing Trump on a second ballot should another candidate comes close to his total in the first round.
Asked about the prospect of widespread defections, Trump’s South Carolina state director Ed McMullen blasted the suggestion as gossip among insiders.
“I’m not gonna speculate or participate in a story on fairy tale land,” he said. “It’s a figment of people’s imaginations.”
Yet several Trump supporters contacted by POLITICO agreed they faced an uphill climb against a state party establishment intent on stacking South Carolina’s national delegation with Trump opponents.
“In 2012, we had a slate of tea party [delegate] candidates. The Ron Paul people had a slate of candidates. But the establishment slate is what won,” said Roy Lindsey, an Orangeburg County resident and Trump backer who said he’d quit the party if anti-Trump forces “steal” the nomination. “And that’s the one that went to Tampa. I pretty well foresee that happening again, realistically. When it’s all said and done, if he doesn’t go to the convention with a clear majority of 1,237 or more, they’re going to try to steal it from him.”
Mike Rose, of Dorchester, S.C., said he intends to run to be a delegate from the First Congressional District to support Trump at the convention. He said it would be harder for Trupm’s opponents to influence Congressional District delegate races because the candidates are known figures in the community. But he anticipates the 26 delegates selected at the statewide convention to have an anti-Trump tinge.
Eddie Taylor, a Charleston delegate candidate and Trump ally, said delegates should stick with Trump on a second ballot no matter what. “South Carolina went for Trump. To me, what does that change just because it went to a second ballot?” he wondered.
But Taylor noted that a tea party-aligned strain of South Carolina’s Republican base has “infiltrated” the party and is working to elect delegates who support Cruz.
John Steinberger, a Charleston Republican and Trump backer, said he’s not planning to run for delegate but has worked to recruit those who would stick with Trump beyond a first ballot. But he said his hope is a second ballot won’t be necessary.
“I think he’ll clinch it on the first ballot. He’ll do very well in the big delegate states like New York and California. He’ll win the vast majority of delegates still on the table,” Steinberger said. “It’d be a black eye for the Republican Party to go with anybody else. There’s so many first-time voters who voted for Trump.”
Those fears prompted a sharp response from Lewis, the First Congressional District delegate candidate.
“Some people think there’s something dishonest about trying to recruit support. But isn’t that what this is all about?” she wondered. “People who are new to the process, I’m a little concerned that they seem to think there’s some sort of nefarious scheme. I think the rumors are very unproductive. Everyone has to calm down and recognize it’s a normal process.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/south-carolina-delegates-convention-221253
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