Why the Islamic Republic is readying for war not despite the Iran nuclear accord -- but because of it.
August 28, 2015
Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) announced today that she would be voting in favor of a resolution of disapproval against the president’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action becoming the 14th Democratic congressional lawmaker to buck Obama. Two Senators, Chuck Schumer and Robert Menendez, also announced their intention to vote in favor of a resolution of disapproval.
In explaining her decision, Maloney quite accurately noted that even if Iran doesn’t cheat -- an unlikely prospect given the Islamic Republic’s record of deceit and fabrication -- the Iranians can legally become a threshold nuclear power once many of the restrictive provisions of the JCPOA expire in 8 to 10 years. In the best-case scenario, Obama has merely kicked the can down the road. Moreover, in 8 years, Iran will be a lot richer and infinitely more menacing thanks to sanctions relief as mandated by the JCPOA.
A day prior to Maloney's announcement, a group of nearly 200 retired generals and admirals sent a letter to Congress urging them to reject the deal. Such unanimity among such a high number of senior military officials is impressive and Maloney may have been swayed by their compelling arguments as well as stature. She may be also cognizant of recent opinion polls which are decidedly against approval of the JCPOA.
Notwithstanding Maloney’s intrepid stand, it’s an uphill battle for opponents of the JCPOA. Thus far 29 senators, all Democrats, have aligned themselves with Obama, while 56 senators, including two Democrats, have signaled an intention to vote against the JCPOA. Democrats only need 34 votes to ensure that Obama has sufficient support to sustain a presidential veto. Moreover, if opponents of the deal fail to muster 60 negative votes, supporters of the deal can initiate a senate filibuster and prevent a resolution of disapproval from ever reaching the president’s desk, sparing Obama the need to exercise a veto.
It may sound a bit confusing, but what is not confusing is the fact that Obama’s Iran deal is leading the nation toward the inevitable path of war. With or without the deal, war with the Islamic Republic is a virtual certainty. The only question is will war break out with an economically strong and powerful Iran, equipped with sophisticated weapons purchased from the Russians and Europeans or will it break out while Iran’s military is relatively weak and its economy is in shambles?
Already we are witnessing foreboding signs of Iranian malfeasance. The IAEA announced today that Iran is building an “extension to an existing building” at the top-secret Parchin military facility. IAEA inspectors believe that the facility also serves as a testing site for conducting nuclear experiments with military applications. In early August, the Institute for Science and International Security announced that based on satellite imagery they believed that Iran was attempting to sanitize the Parchin site before any IAEA inspection. The Iranians countered that they were merely engaged in road repair. What is truly amazing is that the ink on the JCPOA hasn’t even dried yet and already, the Iranians are up to their old antics.
Anticipating an immediate influx of $150 billion as well as billions more resulting from sanctions relief, Iran is now substantially shoring up its military capabilities. Russia announced that it would be selling the Iranians the S-300 weapon system, a state-of the-art anti-aircraft platform capable of tracking and shooting down multiple targets and great distances. Once acquired and integrated, the system will greatly complicate plans for a preemptive strike.
Iran and China are now in the midst of negotiating a deal worth $1 billion whereby Iran would acquire 24 Chinese Chengdu J-10 fighter jets in exchange for granting China control of Iran’s biggest oil field for two decades. Iran’s air force is currently in a decrepit state, flying aircraft that date to the 1950s but the purchase of these sophisticated fourth-generation aircraft will substantially improve Iran’s tactical and strategic capabilities.
Iran is also seeking to transfer sophisticated military technology to its Lebanese Shia proxy, Hezbollah. According to Israel’s foreign ministry director-general Dore Gold, Iran is seeking to transfer Yakhont cruise missiles and SA-22 anti-aircraft missiles to Hezbollah. Both of these weapons systems are game-changing platforms that endanger Israeli commercial and military aircraft as well as offshore gas facilities.
In 1955, Egypt concluded a deal with the Soviet Union (known as the Egyptian-Czech arms deal) whereby the Communist regime would supply Egypt with hundreds of T-34 tanks, artillery, armored personnel carriers, 150 Mig-15 fighters, 50 IL-28 bombers and other ancillary equipment. The delivery of these systems altered the balance of power heavily in favor of the Arabs. Israel estimated that the Egyptians would not be able to fully integrate these systems into their military until 1957. Once the Egyptians succeeded in doing so, however, they would pose a formidable threat to Israel’s security. This was one of the primary factors motivating Israel to launch a preventative war against Egypt in 1956, one year before the Egyptians were capable of absorbing the Soviet hardware.
Iran’s acquisition of these new weapons platforms facilitated by revenue flowing in as a result of the JCPOA and its destablizing transfer of military technology to Israel’s genocidal enemies will merely serve to accelerate Israel’s military response. Though the math looks bad for opponents of the JCPOA, those who are still on the fence line should be cognizant of the fact that Iran is gearing for war not despite the JCPOA, but because of it.
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