Iowa results: Cruz strikes 1st! Beats Trump, Rubio
State casts first votes in nation, kick-starts race to White House
(Breitbart) – Donald Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) can potentially rock the political establishment tonight as Iowans kick off the 2016 election season.
Stay tuned to Breitbart News for live updates throughout the day/evening. Keep track of the GOP caucus results. Voting starts at 7 PM central time.
10:35: A glowing Rubio addresses his supporters and says this is the moment “they said would never happen.” He says for months people said they had no chance because he offered too much optimism in the face of anger. He says “they told me we had no chance because my hair wasn’t gray enough and my boots were too high” and his detractors said he needed to wait his turn in line. Rubio says Iowans sent a message: “After seven years of Barack Obama, we aren’t waiting any longer to take our country back.” Rubio says “this is not a time for waiting” because “everything that makes this nation great hangs in the balance.” Good use of time by Rubio by not using the precious time he has on national television to endlessly thank friends, family, and operatives. Rubio says that if Sanders or Clinton get elected, “we will be a great nation in decline.” He says Obamacare “becomes permanent” if they win and Obama’s “unconstitutional executive orders” become permanent while America’s military declines and liberals control the Supreme Court. He says Clinton is “disqualified from being president of the United States” because “she thinks she’s above the law.” He says Clinton can never be “Commander-in-Chief” because “anyone who lies to the families of people who have lost their lives in the service to this country can never be the Commander-in-Chief of the United States.” Rubio thanks Iowans because he has taken the first step to winning the GOP nomination and promises that when he is the nominee, “we are going to unify this party and we are going to unify the conservative movement” and “grow the conservative movement” by taking our message to people who are “struggling paycheck to paycheck” and bring them to our side. He also thanks “all-powerful and mighty God” and his family. He said he wants to congratulate Cruz for earning his victory and thanks Huckabee as well.
10: 32: From Breitbart’s Michelle Fields: Cruz crowd at victory party goes wild when CNN announces Cruz victory:
(Photo: Michelle Fields/Breitbart News)
10: 30: Huckabee, who won the caucuses in 2008, will suspend his campaign, according to a CNN report.
10:28: From Breitbart’s Alex Swoyer: As CNN called the Iowa caucus for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), supporters at Donald Trump caucus party started booing.
10: 26: Cruz headquarters ecstatic.
10:25: CNN Projects Cruz Will Win Iowa.
10: 24: Rubio may win Iowa’s larges country (Polk, County). A lot of late-deciders seem to go for Rubio:
10: 23: NBC News calls Iowa for Cruz.
10: 17: Rubio is closing in on Trump for second place and now trails him by a percentage point. A second-place finish for Rubio may not bode well for Messrs. Bush, Kasich, and Christie in New Hampshire.
10: 12: Interesting note on Sanders:
10:10: From Breitbart’s Charlie Spiering:
The Rubio campaign is claiming momentum as the results come in strong for their campaign. Rubio campaign managers tweeted their amazement on Twitter moments ago:
10:05: Pundits are wondering what Trump’s reaction will be if he loses Iowa. It will be interesting to see if he has the political savvy to use a potential loss to set up wins in other states like Obama did after New Hampshire:
10:00: Breitbart’s Dr. Susan Berry finds NARAL/Planned Parenthood Tweets supporting Hillary:
9:55: CNN reports that former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley will suspend his campaign.
9:40: Multiple reports–from CNN to the Des Moines Register–suggest that Republicans will have a record turnout north of 150,000 caucus-goers.
9:38: O’Malley supporter heads over to Sanders. There were reports that Clinton supporters may try to game the system to make O’Malley viable at some caucus sites:
9:36: Interesting, given Branstad warned Iowans against nominating Cruz:
9:35: Top Cruz aide wonders if Fox News employs anyone who doesn’t shill for Rubio in a Tweet that has been deleted:
9:33: Jeb’s waste of resources:
8:57: According to Fox News’s entrance poll, Trump only trails Cruz by only two percentage points among Evangelicals:
Among evangelical Christians, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) polled the best at 26 percent, followed by Donald Trump at 24 percent, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) at 21 and Ben Carson at 12.As for first-time voters, Trump led the way with 33 percent, Rubio came in second with 21 percent, followed by Cruz at 18 and Carson at ten.
8:53: From Breitbart’s Charlie Spiering:
After holding three campaign events in Iowa this morning New Jersey governor Chris Christie traveled back to New Hampshire to renew his campaign there.Christie is currently at an event at Nashua Community College in Nashua, NH.He hopes to be the number one governor running for president in Iowa, beating Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, and Jeb Bush.
8:52: Early estimate from CBS News has Trump ahead in Iowa with Rubio and Cruz in a dead heat for second:
8:50: From Boyle: MICHELLE FIELDS reporting for Breitbart News from precinct Clive 6 at Waukee Middle School in Waukee, Iowa, at the GOP caucus there says turnout is so high that caucus goers are being given green slips of paper to make their own ballots.
The incredible turnout levels so far throws many predictions by political observers into flux and most campaigns behind the scenes are now saying this may end up being a long night in Iowa. (see below for photos).
8:48: Trump doing well among first-time caucus-goers:
8:45: According to CNN’s entrance polls, “about 4-in-10 Democrats are first-time attendees, while about 60% said they had attended before. On the Republican side, about 4-in-10 early arrivers say this is their first caucus, a bit more than said so in 2012.”
8:40: From Breitbart’s John Nolte:
8: 37: Breitbart’s Michelle Fields reports that Waukee Middle School did not expect this many people and ran out of ballots.
They are now passing these little green pieces of paper out for people to use as ballots.
8:36: From Breitbart’s John Nolte:
8:35: From Breitbart’s Adelle Nazarian:
Counterfeit black man Shaun King weighs in, attempts to take swipe at HRC:
8:30: From Breitbart’s Charlie Spiering:
Where is Marco Rubio?Tonight Marco Rubio will join supporters at the Marriott Des Moines Downtown following the caucuses to react to the results. The doors open at 8:00 pm CT.
8:25: Breitbart’s Michelle Fields sends a photo from Waukee Middle School right before the caucus is about to start:
8:21: From Boyle:
8:20: From Swoyer: Donald Trump and Carly Fiorina turn up at same caucus site in West Des Moines, according to CNN.
8:19: From Boyle: As the Iowa caucuses opened, as a show of strength, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum announced a forthcoming ambitious 46 county statewide tour in South Carolina starting on Wednesday.
8:15: From Boyle: Entrance poll results show a slight lead from Trump.
8:10: From Boyle (Tweets on turnout):
8:05: Polling found that Republican minivan voters in Iowa (39.5%) favored Cruz, who showed up to a caucus location in a minivan:
7:57: A Trump voter reportedly last voted in 1968. She was a part of Nixon’s “silent majority.”
New voters certainly will benefit Trump:
7:55: Breitbart’s Neil Munro finds images of Caucus Night. Anecdotal evidence of packed crowds is good news for Trump:
7:40: Breitbart’s Alex Swoyer: Video of media setting up at Trump’s Caucus Party. She also points out that Trump is still doing media appearances as people start to go to their caucus sites:
7:35: Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are relying on social media to get some of their supporters to their caucus sites. They have dominated the Facebook conversation on Monday. And they also have gained the most new Facebook fans throughout the day:
7:25: After his ridiculous and unprompted attacks on Sarah Palin (without any shred of evidence whatsoever) earlier in the day, Rep. Steve King (R-IA) tells Breitbart News Washington Political Editor Matt Boyle that the Cruz campaign is “confident without being cocky.” Read the full report here.
7:10 PM: Blizzard Expected to hit Western Iowa around midnight.
7:00 PM: When he is not spewing conventional wisdom or repeating what GOP beltway hacks/insiders are whispering to him, Chuck Todd occasionally will speak some straight talk. If Trump resoundingly wins Iowa, it may be nearly impossible to stop him if he then wins New Hampshire. It would be a political earthquake. But I’m more interested to see what will happen if Trump loses an early state primary. Does he have the political sophistication to use a potential loss to set up victories down the road that Obama did after his New Hampshire loss in 2008. It was after he lost in New Hampshire that Obama delivered his “Yes, we can!” (which conveniently translates to “Si, Se Puede” in Spanish) speech that arguable helped him galvanize even more of his supporters in the following states to give Obama the nomination and the presidency. Can Trump pull off something familiar? That, to me, is the $1 billion question.
6:35: Secret Ballot Could Help Donald Trump:
Unlike Democrats, Iowa Republicans cast secret ballots at their caucuses, and that may benefit Donald Trump, especially with non-blue-collar voters who may be reluctant to publicly declare their support for Trump.
Trump’s campaign flyer explicitly informs potential caucus attendees that the “ballot is Secret,” with “Secret” written in bold, which is no accident.
A Morning Consult analysis recently found that Trump polls considerably better in online polls than in live telephone interviews by about six percentage points and “his [hidden] advantage online is driven by adults with higher levels of education.”
“Among adults with a bachelors degree or postgraduate degree, Trump performs about 10 percentage points better online than via live telephone,” the study found.
Blue-collar voters who lack college degrees, which is the stereotype of typical Trump voters, are not hesitant to wear their support for Trump on their sleeves.
But Trump gets support from a huge swath of the GOP electorate, even moderate Republicans and those with college degrees and higher incomes.
If these voters had to publicly declare their support for Trump like Democrats have to at their caucuses, though, some may be reluctant to do so just like moderate women who support Sarah Palin and are often hesitant to reveal their support in pubic because it may not be “socially acceptable” to admit support for someone whom their peers like to bash in public.
But the secret ballot ensures that some of Trump’s supporters will not risk social ostracism on Monday evening.
(Photo: Associated Press)
6:00: Here’s what’s at stake for Democrats and Republicans tonight per the Associated Press:
DEMOCRATS HAVE 44 DELEGATES AT STAKE
Iowa Democrats award delegates proportionally, based on the statewide vote as well as the vote in individual congressional districts.Candidates must get at least 15 percent of the statewide vote to win any statewide delegates. They must win at least 15 percent of the vote in individual congressional districts to win the delegates allocated to those districts.The threshold could be a problem for former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, who is polling below 15 percent in pre-election polls in Iowa.In a tight contest, it is possible for two candidates to split the delegates evenly.There are 4,763 delegates to the Democratic National Convention, so it takes 2,382 to win the nomination.___REPUBLICANS HAVE 30 DELEGATES AT STAKERepublicans also award delegates proportionally, based on the statewide vote. But there is no threshold for winning them. That means a Republican candidate could win a single delegate with as little as 1.67 percent of the vote, depending on how the rounding works out.There are 2,472 delegates to the Republican National Convention, so it takes 1,237 to win the nomination.
5:50: Here’s how Iowans voted in 2012 (per the Des Moines Register/Morning Consult). According to demographics expert Dante Chinni, since Trump’s supporters include voters who lack college degrees in addition to those who are less religious, he will “find friendly territory in the state’s southern counties, such as Decatur, Lucas, Monroe and Lee. He may also do well in counties that run through the center of the state, such as Guthrie, Jasper and Adair.” Chinni argues that “if those counties go for the New York businessman, it will be a signal that Mr. Trump’s core supporters stuck with him on Monday night.”
Chinni also adds that in 2012, Santorum won “34 of the 44 counties west of Polk,” and Cruz must run up big margins in this socially-conservative territory big or “he won’t win the state.”
5:3o: Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL) (R-MI) said on CNN that he has been speaking to people on the ground in Iowa and they have “never had so many calls” from new voters asking about where they have to go to caucus. He said “if that continues and they actually show up, it’s going to be a Trump night.” He added that Cruz has organized reliable conservative voters across the state and it will be hard for anybody to beat Cruz’s ground game.
3:50: A Morning Consult analysis determined that Rubio’s campaign has spent $4.53 million on ads in Iowa while his Super PACs have added another $7.2 million. How in the world, then, can a third-place finish be considered a huge win for Rubio, who, before he became the face of the Gang of Eight’s comprehensive amnesty bill, was the Iowa frontrunner. And what in the world was overrated GOP operative Mike Murphy, who has ZERO presidential wins and heads Jeb Bush’s Super PAC, doing spending $14 million in Iowa?
Here are the numbers per Morning Consult:
Jeb Bush: $0 from campaign, $14.05m from Super PACs
Ben Carson: $3.28m, $329k
Chris Christie: $44k, $543k
Ted Cruz: $2.90m, $4.53m
Carly Fiorina: $356k, $475k
Mike Huckabee: $0, $2.76m
John Kasich: $0, $0
Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY): $86k, $1.23m
Marco Rubio: $4.53m, $7.20m
Rick Santorum: $3k, $29k
Donald Trump: $3.54m, $24k
Democrats:
Hillary Clinton: $10.74m from campaign, $48k from Super PACs
Bernie Sanders: $10.01m, $0
Martin O’Malley: $0, $239k
3:15: Sarah Palin Blasts Steve King for False Attacks. Re: Trump, Palin says: When Both Political Parties ‘Hate You, You Know America Loves You.’
In introducing Trump at a Cedar Rapids event, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin said Trump is in the perfect position to “tell the Washington good old boys that the status quo is going to go.” She said both political establishments are in “such a panic” because Trump will put them out of business. Palin added that when both political parties hate you, “you know America loves you.” Palin said Trump’s campaign has exposed all of the cronyism in the permanent political class and asked what have Trump’s opponents ever built. She quipped that they have built big vocabularies, big debt and big war chests.
Palin also blasted Rep. Steve King (R-IA), a top Cruz supporter, for attacking her on MSNBC earlier in the day and falsely accusing her of selling her support to Trump. Palin said the only promise Trump made to her was to “make America Great Again.”
She said King’s attack is “why people don’t really like politics,” which people rightfully think is a “dirty business” where people say things they know are untrue.
“Why would a good conservative like Steve King want to say something he knows isn’t true?” Palin asked. “That doesn’t sound like the heartland of America.”
Palin said maybe King has forgotten his heart in in the heartland or has gotten “Potomac fever.” She said maybe he has been huffing ethanol in the corn fields.
She called King’s accusations “way off base” and she said she has learned from Trump that you have to stand up for what is right, for yourself, your family, your community, and your country.
Palin has repeatedly emphasized that she decided to endorse Trump because he is the candidate least beholden to anybody in the permanent political class. She has said Cruz would be better served fighting the Republican establishment in the Senate. King’s comments on the day of the caucuses do Cruz no favors in a state where conservatives still hold Palin in high regard (ask Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA). Ask Santorum, who surged in 2011 right after Palin praised his campaign without even endorsing him).
2:40: Santorum Compares Himself to Nick Saban:
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who won the 2012 Iowa caucuses, said he would “reassess” his campaign if he did not win tonight. Santorum said Trump’s success represents the frustration voters have with the Republican Party in D.C. that has “betrayed” them. Santorum said disaffected Americans think both parties do not represent their interests on trade and immigration, and he said Democrats want amnesty for votes while Republicans want it for cheaper labor. Santorum said mass immigration is keeping wages down and both parties are not looking out for wage-earners. Earlier, Santorum made an interesting argument against a potential Trump presidency. He said a struggling football team would not hire someone without any football knowledge as a head coach because that coach would then have to hire a bunch of assistant coaches who are football experts. Santorum told MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell that Trump would have to hire “insiders” to run the government, and Santorum compared himself to Nick Saban. The analogy doesn’t quite work as well because Trump is succeeding because many voters see him as a great delegator, and they trust him to hire people with knowledge who will not be co-opted by the system.
2:35 PM: Sanders, Trump Most-Discussed Candidates in Iowa per Facebook:
Sanders: 42.2%
Trump: 21.7%
Clinton: 13.1%
Cruz: 10.7%
Paul: 4.7%
Carson: 2.6%
Rubio: 1.9%
2:30 PM: Cruz completes “The Full Grassley” (visting all of Iowa’s 99 counties) with his stop in Jefferson, Iowa (Greene Country). He reportedly says that he is showing Iowans respect by visiting every country in the state and it is “fitting” that he is completing “The Full Grassley” in a place named after a Founding Father.
Barack Obama gamed the caucuses brilliantly in 2008. His supporters cut a deal with Bill Richardson’s supporters–and the Clintons still not have forgiven the former New Mexico Governor and U.N. Ambassador for those shenanigans. Obama supporters also kept some candidates viable at certain caucus locations (ensuring they had 15% support in the room) if they thought their supporters would go to Hillary Clinton. Fast forward to 2016, and the Clinton campaign may be taking a page out of Obama’s playbook that defeated her. MSNBC pundits over the weekend suggested that Clinton supporters may keep former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley viable by supporting him at some caucus locations so his supporters do not go to Sanders. Clinton denied any knowledge of these reported plans. But it just goes to show that the caucuses can be much more chaotic for Democrats.
Unlike Democrats, who require that 15% threshold, Republicans can cast their caucus vote through secret ballot, and GOP caucus-goers can write the name of the candidate they support on a piece of scrap paper. Hopefully the vote-counting will be less chaotic than it was in some caucus locations in 2012. (Video courtesy of videographer Pat Frank).
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